Summary of the Federal Reserve FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference: The decision to keep interest rates unchanged for the third time this year. Powell reiterated that the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates.
1. Interest Rates/Monetary Policy:
1) The Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, marking the third consecutive time this year that the Fed has kept rates unchanged. 2) Powell stated that the Fed does not need to rush to adjust interest rates. 3) Powell stated that the Fed's policy is moderately restrictive. 4) Powell stated that President Trump's calls for rate cuts have no influence on the Fed's work. 5) When asked about the expectation of two rate cuts in March, Powell stated that it is too early to make predictions and we have to wait until June.
2. Inflation:
1) The FOMC statement shows that the committee sees increasing risks of rising unemployment and inflation. 2) The FOMC statement shows that inflation remains slightly above the desired level. 3) Powell stated that inflation has significantly declined. 4) Powell stated that short-term inflation expectations have risen slightly, while long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with targets. 5) Powell stated that the Fed has a duty to stabilize inflation expectations. 6) Powell stated that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased, but have not yet appeared in the data.
3. US Economy:
1) The FOMC statement shows that the uncertainty of the US economic outlook has further increased. 2) The FOMC statement shows that economic activity continues to expand at a steady pace. 3) Powell stated that the economy is in a healthy state. 4) Powell stated that the unusual fluctuations in trade make GDP measurement complex. 5) Powell stated that the uncertainty of the economic path is very high, and downside risks have increased. 6) Powell stated that GDP data fluctuations will not truly change the Fed's situation.
4. Financial Markets:
1) The FOMC statement shows that the reduction of government bonds and MBS holdings will continue at the current pace. 2) Powell stated that he does not want to significantly tighten financial conditions when the economy is fragile. 3) Powell stated that US debt is on an unsustainable path.
5. Tariffs:
1) Powell stated that survey respondents identified tariffs as a major driver of inflation expectations. 2) Powell stated that the impact of tariffs has been much larger than expected so far. 3) Powell stated that avoiding sustained inflation will depend on the size, timing, and inflation expectations of tariffs. 4) Powell stated that a timetable cannot be provided for increasing tariff transparency. 5) Powell stated that if tariffs remain unchanged, there will be no progress in achieving the dual mandate goals this year. 6) Powell stated that trade negotiations may substantially change the situation.
6. Other Aspects:
1) Fed Chair Powell refused to comment on Trump's withdrawal of the threat to fire him. 2) When asked if he would continue to serve on the Fed board if he were no longer the chair, Powell stated that there is no information on this matter. 3) Powell stated that he has never requested meetings with the President and will never do so, as all meetings with the President are at the President's invitation. 4) Powell stated that the Fed does not have good tools to solve supply chain issues. 5) Powell stated that the Fed will not be the decision-maker on climate issues.
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