GMT EIGHT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Hua Chuang Securities: Food and Beverage Bottoming Out, Position in Leading Players for Recovery

Baijiu remained in a clearing and bottoming-out phase in Q3, with industry risks fully reflected in the financial statements. For most liquor companies, the magnitude of statement adjustments continued to exceed the actual decline in sell-through, and industry inventory, especially at the terminal level, continued to be destocked.

Nomura: There is a 75% probability that the AI arms race will continue, and the 2027 memory chip shortage is basically locked in.

Nomura expects roughly a 75% probability that the AI investment race will continue and the semiconductor super-cycle will persist. What could truly break this trajectory is a closure of financing channels; power shortages could delay chip deployment and become another key risk.

Guosen: Evolution of Open Models and Agent Applications; Bullish on AI Applications, Film and Television Content, and IP Trendy Toy Opportunities

Focus on bottom-fishing opportunities across three main lines: AI applications, gaming, and IP trendy toys.

After record hedge fund selling, Goldman Sachs recommends buying the dip: allocate to AI "selectively," but with limited confidence.

Hedge funds concentrated their selling and AI trade crowding has declined, creating buying opportunities for some U.S. tech stocks, but Goldman Sachs remains cautious about a rebound.

Amgen (AMGN.US) and Astrazeneca PLC Sponsored ADR (AZN.US) combination therapy extends small cell lung cancer survival by eight months, reducing risk of death by 58%

Researchers combined Amgen's Imdelltra with AstraZeneca's Imfinzi and found that for patients with aggressive lung cancer whose tumors had spread, the combination extended survival by about eight months compared with Imfinzi alone. Small cell lung cancer is one of the cancer types with the poorest prognosis.

Paul Chan: Corporate confidence in Hong Kong is gradually being reflected in the real economy

Paul Chan pointed out that building an international innovation and technology hub requires both attracting corporate investment and nurturing local research and talent.

Playing the Election Game: The US, Israel, and Iran "Play a Big Game of Chess"

After the election, whether the US and Israel will restart military operations has become a focal point.

Important adjustments to the SSE series composite indices take effect tomorrow.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Announcement on Revising the Compilation Scheme of the SSE Series Composite Indices" on September 24.

South Korea's memory chip duo set to release Q3 earnings, combined operating profit expected to reach 185 trillion won

South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will release their third-quarter earnings next week, with strong demand for AI memory chips expected to drive substantial profits for both companies. SK Hynix is scheduled to report on Wednesday, followed by Samsung Electronics on Thursday. Market estimates suggest that combined operating profit for the two companies could reach about 185 trillion won, driven by rising memory chip prices and continued growth in demand for high-bandwidth memory used in AI accelerators. Samsung Electronics previously said in its earnings guidance that it expects third-quarter revenue of 195 trillion won and operating profit of 107.4 trillion won. Investors will closely watch the two chipmakers' progress in supplying next-generation HBM4 chips for AI accelerators such as Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. Buoyed by strong demand for conventional memory chips as well as high-end HBM products, SK Hynix is also expected to deliver strong earnings results.

Gold falls below $4,000, yen rises to resistance level as market becomes picky about "safe-haven assets"

This week, risk aversion ran high in global markets, yet traditional safe-haven assets showed sharp divergence: U.S. Treasuries were in demand, the yen rose to a key technical level, while gold unexpectedly fell.

Hong Kong Property: As of October 22, registrations of second-hand residential properties worth over HK$10 million in Hong Kong approached 6,450 cases, hitting a 5-year high.

Year-to-date (as of October 22), registrations of second-hand residential properties worth over HK$10 million reached 6,443 cases, surpassing last year's full-year total of 5,443 cases by about 18.4%, hitting a 5-year high.

AI "stumbles," US Treasuries "feast"! Global "capital battle," the market gives its answer.

The current landscape means that the wavering confidence in AI is being directly translated by the market into demand for safe assets.

Guotai Haitong: Life insurance growth picked up from January to September, while property insurance growth remained steady; the insurance sector's valuation is expected to still have room for recovery.

In the context of market style rebalancing, along with improved liability costs and the gradual stabilization of asset-side returns, the insurance sector's valuation is expected to still have room for recovery. Maintain the industry "Overweight" rating.

"Black October" Sweeps the Global Internet! Is AI Completely Overturning the Cybersecurity Table?

In recent weeks, as hackers have massively deployed AI agents and automated attack tools, an unprecedented cyber storm is sweeping across the global internet.

CITIC SEC: What signals do CDS spreads reveal amid the AI financing boom?

Against the backdrop of AI infrastructure construction and bond financing still in an expansion phase, the cross-sectional dispersion of CDS spreads and their dynamic evolution may become important indicators for observing the accumulation and transmission of credit risk in this AI capital expenditure cycle.

The U.S. State Department updates travel advisories for multiple Middle East countries, citing increased threat of attacks by the Houthis and Iran.

According to US media reports on the 24th, due to increased threats of attacks from Yemen's Houthi armed forces and Iran, the US State Department has updated travel warnings for 13 Middle Eastern countries. The report said the countries and regions involved in this update include Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. US embassies in the above countries recently posted the latest travel warnings on their official websites, stating that the warning levels and risk indicators have not changed, but the warning summaries have been updated. Among them, the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia issued a travel warning saying that "the possibility of potential armed attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces has increased, while Iran is trying to take action against US government officials in the region." Travel warnings from US embassies in other countries only mentioned the increased threat of Houthi attacks.

From "surefire profits" to "choosing the lesser of two evils," the AI investment logic has completely changed!

Nomura believes that the AI investment narrative is deeply mired in an internal contradiction: if hyperscale cloud providers accelerate capital expenditure, free cash flow will continue to be depleted and the sustainability of financing will be called into question; if they slow down, it would mean that expectations for AI demand and profitability prospects have been lost. Both paths point to selling. The crowded long positions accumulated during the September "agent fever" rally triggered large-scale stop-losses under negative catalysts and spread to the U.S. Treasury, foreign exchange, and commodity markets, forming a systemic deleveraging.

Counterterrorism units deployed on the streets, the Louvre closed! A new wave of protests erupted in France over the weekend, and the flames of unrest threaten to spread across Europe.

France has plunged into a new wave of violent protests, with 70,000 security personnel urgently deployed, curfews imposed in multiple cities, and Macron openly admitting to response failures. Financial markets have already sounded the alarmthe France-Germany bond yield spread has surged to its highest level since the European debt crisis, PMI has fallen below the boom-or-bust line, luxury stores have boarded up their windows, the Louvre has closed, and the Paris municipal government estimates losses in the tens of millions of euros. The flames of unrest threaten to spread across Europe.

MOFCOM Spokesperson Answers Questions on the U.S. Release of the Proposed New Outbound Investment Restrictions Rules

The U.S. restrictions on investment in China are detrimental to China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation and will also harm the interests of U.S. companies themselves.

AI arms race heats up upstream! Report says Intel Corporation (INTC.US), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), and AMD (AMD.US) prepay over NT$100 billion to lock in high-end IC substrate capacity.

NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD splurge US$5 billion in prepayments to snap up Taiwan's high-end IC substrates. Driven by "cash-for-capacity" locking, Taiwan's top three substrate makers are spending a record NT$161.2 billion on capacity expansion. The giants are binding capacity with heavy money, fully revealing the extreme scarcity game over core AI materials.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Short-term market cost-effectiveness has significantly improved; oversold rebound small and micro-cap stocks and themes have higher elasticity.

Under the oversold rebound window, we reiterate our preference for the AI chain; the window for excess returns in non-tech directions in the medium term has not closed, and high dividend and tech sectors exhibit a "seesaw effect."

Montage Technology (06809): From the "memory bear market" to CPU shipmentsafter the 9% rebound, the quality of the recovery still awaits Q4 validation.

If the profit alert addresses "whether the earnings disprove the pessimistic narrative," then the capital flows address "who is pricing it in, and at what level."

Performance Rising vs. Share Price Falling: Is It the Right Time for ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259) Valuation Repair?

When market sentiment returns to rationality and long-term capacity increments gradually materialize, valuations that were unfairly hit by short-term sentiment will eventually see a recovery.

Critical to semiconductor production! U.S. Department of Energy designates helium as a critical material.

On Friday, October 23 local time, the U.S. Department of Energy announced that it has designated helium as a critical material under the Energy Act of 2020 to strengthen U.S. manufacturing and supply chain security.

Once frantically buying the dips, now their "ammunition depot" has shrunk by 51 trillion Korean won! South Korean retail investors can no longer afford to buy.

In just four months, South Korean retail investors' "ammunition depot" has fallen by 36.5%, dropping back to early-year levels. Although retail investors have still been stepping in to buy, with cumulative net purchases exceeding 75 trillion Korean won, new capital inflows have dried up, and the pace of replenishment is far lagging behind depletion. Coupled with the KOSPI's nearly 20% plunge within the month, continued net selling by foreign investors, and mounting concerns over AI credit risk, South Korean stocksnow lacking the support of private capitalare unlikely to see a sustained rebound in the near term.

OpenAI and Anthropic both participate! The world's first AI biosecurity laboratory is coming

The UK Cabinet Office announced on Saturday that the United Kingdom will establish a national-level artificial intelligence biosecurity laboratory.

Guosen: Hong Kong stocks plunged, who is selling?

Northbound funds may have seen a small net outflow over the past week, among which flexible foreign capital may have seen a small net inflow.

The collapse of the "consensus trade" and the birth of a new consensus! Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS.US) answers: Why are institutions significantly reducing their AI positions right now?

The extremely crowded "long AI, short everything" trade is undergoing a painful unwindingthe market is no longer satisfied with the "cash-burning narrative," and hyperscalers must deliver tangible, visible revenue conversion alongside $1.1 trillion in capital expenditure. A 40-50 gigawatt power gap, rising cost of capital, and the macro paradigm shift of the "era of excess spending" are turning the AI trade from a question of faith into a harsh examination of monetization.

No rate hike in October, another move in December? The Fed's "slow hiking" path to fight inflation emerges. Warsh's speech next week is the biggest highlight.

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision next Wednesday. The market widely expects the central bank to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at that time, which will send a signal that it is maintaining patience in fighting inflation.

S&P Rewrites Stock Classification Rules! $375 Billion in Funds May Be Forced to Rebalance; Growth Stocks and Value Stocks Face a "Major Shakeup"

After S&P Dow Jones Indices adopts new stock classification rules, growth and value stocks will undergo a reshuffle.

SCIENTECH(02291): After more than a month of counter-trend stock price rally, "unexpectedly" catches the small nucleic acid tailwind

The approval of GSK's small nucleic acid drug for hepatitis B is expected to further transmit the "small nucleic acid platform fever" from the primary market to the secondary market globally, and ScienTech's acquisition of Minwei Biotech happens to fall within this time window.

AI trades stumble again as investors rediscover the safe-haven value of US Treasuries.

Investors are growing increasingly skeptical of a trade that was once almost universally embraced on Wall Street: going long large-cap tech stocks while shorting defensive markets that have come under pressure from fears that AI-related spending will reignite inflation.

Global investment-grade corporate bond spreads hit a one-and-a-half-year high as the AI financing wave rattles the credit market.

US tech giants have sharply increased borrowing to support AI infrastructure, and combined with rising oil prices and turmoil in France, this has driven a sharp widening of global corporate bond spreads. On Thursday, global investment-grade corporate bond spreads surged to 129 basis points, the widest level since May 2025. Analysts noted, "If there is good news from tech stock earnings, the only implication may be that they will further expand their spending plans."

A breather after a week of crisis! France narrowly avoids Moody's downgrade

Moody's maintained France, the eurozone's second-largest economy, at Aa3, seven notches above "junk" status and on par with the UK; the outlook is negative.

Calls for a downgrade are mounting, but Moody's Corporation (MCO.US) "spares" France: maintains Aa3 rating, but keeps negative outlook.

Moody's announced it is maintaining France's Aa3 rating unchanged, stating that France's diversified economic structure and strong public institutions support the existing rating, while keeping the outlook at negative on the grounds that political instability will continue to constrain fiscal consolidation efforts. Moody's said the maintenance of the Aa3 rating rests on the baseline assumption that France will ultimately pass a deficit-reduction budget plan, and expects that "financing costs and social tensions will ease somewhat in the coming months."

Diesel Becomes Trump's "Hot Potato" for the Midterm Elections! Frequent Policy Moves Yet Prices Remain Hard to Bring Down, Fiscal and Political Costs Both Rising

As the November midterm elections approach rapidly, U.S. President Trump is rolling out a series of costly and politically risky solutions to the thorny issue of diesel prices.

The U.S. repo market faces a major test from the new 2027 clearing rules! CIBC warns that inadequate market preparation could trigger interest rate volatility.

CIBC strategists warn that as the deadline for mandatory central clearing of U.S. Treasury repo transactions approaches, market participants remain slow in their preparations, which could lead financial institutions to concentrate their compliance adjustments before the end of June 2027, thereby disrupting market pricing and financing capacity and driving a phased rise in repo rates.

Overnight US stocks | The three major indices closed lower; Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US) fell nearly 3%; spot gold broke below the $4,000 mark.

At the close, the Dow fell 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215.16, up 0.41% for the week; the S&P 500 dropped 39.75 points, or 0.52%, to 7,623.68, down 0.47% for the week; and the Nasdaq declined 53.51 points, or 0.21%, to 25,955.34, down 0.71% for the week.

The United States will exempt tariffs on certain Canadian goods, covering nine categories of products including packaging materials and machinery equipment.

U.S. Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine said on Friday that the U.S. government will implement tariff exemptions on certain Canadian imported goods.

French Political Turmoil Hits Euro as Hedge Fund Short Bets Reach Over Six-Year High

As political turmoil in France continues to unsettle the European bond market and weigh on the euro, hedge funds are increasing their bearish bets on the euro.

US Stock Market Move | Apex Critical Metal (APXC.US) debuts on the U.S. stock market, falling over 26% after the open.

As of press time, the stock has fallen over 26%, trading at $6.295.

High prices and high interest rates continue to weigh! U.S. consumer confidence fell to a five-month low in October, inflation expectations hit their highest level since May.

Affected by persistently high prices and interest rates, U.S. consumer confidence fell further in October, dropping to its lowest level in five months.

AI shopping assistants disrupt the e-commerce landscape! Bernstein: It may be a wise move for platforms such as Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) and Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER.US) to temporarily refuse access.

Bernstein believes that although AI shopping assistants may reshape the e-commerce landscape in the long term, the technology and consumer usage habits are not yet mature. For now, leading platforms such as Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) and Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER.US) temporarily restricting access to third-party AI agents can help protect their own user relationships and competitive advantages and reduce the risk of disintermediation.

MINIMAX-W (00100): Successfully completed the Ministry of Commerce technology export registration procedures required for the open-sourcing and overseas licensing of several recently released and expected-to-be-released models.

MINIMAX-W (00100) announced that, in accordance with the relevant requirements of Announcement No. 48 of 2026 issued by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology (Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology Announcement No. 48 of 2026), the Company has successfully completed the Ministry of Commerce technology export registration procedures required for the open-sourcing and overseas licensing of several recently released and expected-to-be-released models.

Stablecoin cross-border payments usher in new opportunities; Bernstein favors Visa (V.US) and Mastercard (MA.US) competitive advantages.

Bernstein noted in a research report published after attending this week's Money20/20 fintech conference in Las Vegas that the global payments industry is undergoing a significant transformation.

EDDING GENOR (06998): First-in-human Phase I clinical study data for GB268 released at the 2026 ESMO Congress

Edding Genor (06998) announced that preliminary data from the first-in-human Phase I clinical study of GB268 have been released in poster form at the 2026 European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress (Abstract No.: 1963P). The study evaluated the safety and tolerability, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and preliminary antitumor activity of GB268 monotherapy in patients with previously treated advanced solid tumors.

KNT HOLDINGS (01025) subsidiary intends to sell Hong Kong property for HK$16.8 million

KNT HOLDINGS (01025) announced that on October 23, 2026, the seller (KNT International Holdings Limited, an indirectly wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company) intends to sell the sale property to the buyer (Hengzhiyi Information Technology Limited) for a total cash consideration of HK$16.8 million.

US Stock Market Move | Three major telecom stocks fall collectively; AT&T (T.US) drops over 5%.

On Friday, the three major US telecom stocks fell collectively, with AT&T (T.US) dropping over 5%.

DRAGON RISE GP (06829) Enters into a Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement with a New Energy Enterprise to Jointly Promote Global Digital Asset Cooperation in the New Energy Sector

Dragon Rise Group Holdings (06829) announces that on October 23, 2026, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Dragon Rise Investment Holdings Limited entered into a non-legally binding strategic cooperation framework agreement with a new energy enterprise to jointly promote global digital asset cooperation in the new energy sector.

US Stock Market Move | Brent Crude Oil Breaks Above $116, Oil Stocks Rally Broadly

On Friday, oil stocks rallied broadly, with ConocoPhillips (COP.US) rising over 3%.

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