GMT EIGHT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

After the weight loss drug of Novo Nordisk did not perform as well as Lilly's drug in the trial, Lilly's stock price rose 2.1% in pre-market trading.

The US Supreme Court's ruling reshapes market pricing logic! China and India's export chains emerge as the biggest winners, and Hong Kong stocks welcome a soaring moment.

China and India have become the biggest winners of the US Supreme Court's decision to block Trump's tariffs.

European stocks opened higher, with Germany's DAX index up 0.87%, the UK's FTSE 100 index up 0.56%, France's CAC 40 index up 1.39%, the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 1.06%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index up 1.51%.

In 2026, the box office revenue of the movie exceeded 8 billion yuan.

According to data from online platforms, as of now, the total box office revenue for the year 2026 has exceeded 8 billion.

HK Stock Market Move | Lithium battery concept stocks rose, with REPT BATTERO (00666) rising more than 12% and CALB (03931) rising more than 7%.

The concept stocks of lithium batteries have increased, as of the time of writing, Ruipulan Jun (00666) rose by 12.17% to HK$15.49; Zhongchuang Innovation (03931) rose by 7.58% to HK$28.4; Longpan Technology (02465) rose by 3.21% to HK$10.92; and Ningde Times (03750) rose by 2.28% to HK$538.

Former Bank of Japan Policy Board Member: If the yen depreciates again before the Japan-US summit, the earliest rate hike may be in March.

Makoto Sakurai, former member of the Bank of Japan's policy board, stated that if the yen starts to weaken again before the scheduled Japan-US summit meeting this month, the Bank of Japan could potentially raise interest rates as early as March.

The Hang Seng Technology Index has risen by over 4%, now trading at 5420.410 points; the Hang Seng Index is currently up by 2.796%.

HK Stock Market Move | Golden stocks collectively opened higher in the morning, Middle East situation remained tense, international gold and silver prices rose simultaneously during trading.

Gold stocks opened higher this morning. As of the time of writing, China Gold International (02099) rose by 3.94% to 198 Hong Kong dollars; Zijin Mining (02899) rose by 2.95% to 43.9 Hong Kong dollars; Zhaojin Mining (01818) rose by 2.56% to 32 Hong Kong dollars; and Zhaojin Mining (01818) rose by 2.47% to 16.98 Hong Kong dollars.

FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.7% in early trading.

Daily excess supply of 3 million barrels cannot break oil prices? Analyst: Geopolitical risk premium + demand exceeding expectations are taking over the market.

As we enter the year 2026, the consensus among oil analysts is that the crude oil market is entering a period of deep oversupply. However, this year, due to the dual effects of geopolitical shocks and stronger-than-expected demand, oil prices have unexpectedly risen.

Ignore overseas "AI panic" and focus on the Chinese market where AI winners are being hyped.

The same AI, completely different destinies. The U.S. market is in a state of "panic selling", while Chinese investors are crazy about it: Zhipu AI experienced a surge of 524%, MiniMax soared 488%. The essence of the divergence is that U.S. investors are anxious about competition threatening their lucrative profit pool, while China is still focused on market penetration.

China Securities Co., Ltd.: Accelerating the commercialization of embodied intelligence, with great market potential for "AI + sports" and "AI + security."

Currently, the commercialization of embodied artificial intelligence is accelerating, mainly focusing on sports and security patrol scenes. Robots and robot dogs can solve their problems and pain points.

5 gold, 4 silver, 6 bronze! The Chinese Winter Olympics team has achieved the best performance in overseas competitions.

With Gu Ailing and Li Fanghui sweeping the women's U-shaped field skill event at the Milan Winter Olympics on the 22nd, the Chinese delegation has now won 5 gold, 4 silver, and 6 bronze medals at this Winter Olympics, setting a new record for the best performance by a foreign team in Winter Olympics history.

Industrial: The US tariff ruling is a long-term narrative change brought about by limited administrative power. Attention is focused on the impact of lower tax rates on the A-share export chain.

Light industry household appliances, consumer electronics, batteries, automotive parts, and medical equipment industries that have large revenue exposure to the United States and have previously faced high tariffs in the ASEAN region will benefit significantly from this round of tariff reductions.

JPMorgan Chase admits to closing Trump's account after Capitol Hill riot.

There have been new developments in the lawsuit filed by President Trump against JPMorgan Chase Bank. According to the Associated Press on the 21st, JPMorgan Chase admitted that after the Capitol Hill riots on January 6, 2021, this large American bank closed the bank accounts of President Trump and several of his businesses. In a court filing submitted this week, JPMorgan Chase's former CEO Jamie Dimon wrote, "In February 2021, JPMorgan Chase notified the plaintiff that certain accounts held in JPMorgan Chase private banking and commercial banking would be closed." According to the Associated Press, this is the first time JPMorgan Chase has formally admitted in writing to closing Trump's accounts after the Capitol Hill riots. A spokesperson for Trump's legal team called the disclosure "a shocking concession." Trump's lawyers filed a lawsuit on January 22 in a Florida court, accusing JPMorgan Chase and its CEO Jamie Dimon of closing the plaintiff's accounts for political reasons, seriously disrupting business operations, and seeking at least $5 billion in damages. JPMorgan Chase stated that the lawsuit is baseless, and the bank does not close accounts for political or religious reasons, but rather due to legal, compliance, or regulatory risks.

Alibaba Cloud Coding Plan supports models such as Qianwen 3.5, GLM-4.7, Kimi-K2.5, etc.

Aliyun Coding Plan subscription service has launched new programming models such as Qwen 3.5-Plus, GLM-4.7, Kimi-K2.5, etc. Users can freely switch between models after subscribing. Users can use Aliyun Coding Plan subscription service in mainstream AI tools such as Qwen Code, Claude Code, Cline, OpenClaw, etc.

Glass, revolution chip?

The core focus is no longer on the microscopic circuits inside the chip, but on the "bridges" connecting the chips and the "grounds" supporting them. The nano-scale war has ended, and the micro-scale war has begun.

In the 2026 Spring Festival box office, the total revenue surpassed 4.6 billion.

According to the professional version of Maoyan data, the total box office for the 2026 Spring Festival period exceeded 4.6 billion yuan, with "Speed Life 3", "Soundless Awakening", and "The Escort: The Wind Rises in the Desert" ranking in the top three.

Trump: "Global import tariffs" increased from 10% to 15%

Trump announced that the "global import tax" rate imposed on goods imported into the United States will be increased from 10% to 15%, "effective immediately".

On February 20, the total inter-regional personnel flow in the whole society reached 35.2999 million person-times.

According to the official WeChat account of the Ministry of Transportation, data from the Spring Festival Transport Work Special Team shows that on February 20, 2026, the total number of inter-regional population movements in the whole society was 352.99 million, an increase of 4% compared to the previous period, and a 12.3% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Among them: railway passenger traffic was 15.372 million, an increase of 13.5% compared to the previous period, and a 14.9% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Road passenger traffic was 333.02 million, an increase of 3.6% compared to the previous period, and a 12.1% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Among them, the commercial passenger traffic on the road was 28.18 million, an increase of 10.5% compared to the previous period, and a 5.4% increase compared to the same period in 2025; the non-commercial passenger traffic of small passenger cars on the expressways and ordinary national and provincial roads was 30.484 million, an increase of 3% compared to the previous period, and a 12.8% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Waterway passenger traffic was 2.033 million, an increase of 11.2% compared to the previous period, and a 38.3% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Civil aviation passenger traffic was 2.574 million, an increase of 2% compared to the previous period, and an 8.2% increase compared to the same period in 2025.

"Speeding Life 3 box office exceeds 2 billion"

According to the Maoyan professional version data, the movie "Flying Life 3" has been released for 5 days, with a total box office exceeding 2 billion.

Trump signs 10% global tariffs, quickly counterattacks Supreme Court ruling! Global trade in 2026 is destined to be turbulent.

Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% global tariff to salvage his tariff policy.

Emerging market bull market trend sweeps the globe! Supreme Court tariff ruling ignites the Baillie Gifford Emerging Markets ETF to a new high.

After the Supreme Court overturned President Donald Trump's global comprehensive tariff policy, emerging market assets received a strong boost.

The box office for the 2026 Spring Festival has exceeded 3.9 billion yuan.

According to data from Maoyan Professional Edition, the total box office for the Spring Festival in 2026 broke 3.9 billion, with "Speeding Life 3", "Silent Surprise", and "Boonie Bears: Every Year Bears" ranking in the top three.

Trump's push for rate cuts encountered resistance from the "hawkish" committee, Powell may face the most challenging tenure as the Fed chairman.

As the Federal Reserve is about to undergo a new round of personnel adjustments, the outlook for US monetary policy has become more uncertain.

United States President Trump plans to sign a 10% new tariff, angrily denouncing the Supreme Court's ruling to overturn the "reciprocal tariff" decision.

Trump stated on Friday local time that he will sign a new executive order imposing a uniform 10% tariff on global imported goods, attempting to continue his tough trade policy through other legal pathways.

OpenAI currently estimates that total computing expenditures will approach $600 billion by 2030.

After the release of data such as US PCE, US stock futures fell in the short term, with Nasdaq futures falling 0.33% intraday, S&P 500 index futures falling 0.24%, and Dow Jones futures falling 0.18%.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States is forecasted to increase by 2.2% in 2025, lower than the 2.8% growth in 2024.

US personal income in December increased by 0.3% as expected, revised from 0.30% to 0.4%. US personal spending in December increased by 0.4% as expected, revised from 0.50% to 0.50%. US actual personal consumption expenditure in December increased by 0.1% as expected, revised from 0.30% to 0.30%.

Spot gold breaks through $5040 per ounce, rising 0.90% within the day.

Spot silver broke through $81 per ounce, rising 3.40% intraday.

Bitcoin breaks through $68,000, rising 1.73% intraday.

Hong Kong stock market closing review: Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index were under pressure throughout the day. Smart Platform Technology rose more than 42% intraday.

Today is the first trading day of the Year of the Horse in the Hong Kong stock market. The market was under pressure throughout the day, with the Hang Seng Index opening 48 points lower at 26,657.84 points and deepening losses in the afternoon. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.10%, the technology index fell by 2.91%, and the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index market was 165.73 billion Hong Kong dollars. On the market, oil, artificial intelligence, and robotics concept stocks performed well throughout the day, while film and entertainment, internet healthcare, film, and technology stocks maintained a weak trend in the afternoon. In terms of individual stocks, Zhipu surged 42.72% during the day, with the stock price reaching a high of 725 Hong Kong dollars and a total market value exceeding 320 billion Hong Kong dollars. MINIMAX-WP closed up by 14.52%, with a market value also exceeding 300 billion Hong Kong dollars. JD Health and Baidu fell by over 6%, Bilibili and Alibaba fell by around 5%.

Seize the opportunity of 5 trillion yuan in maturing deposits, multiple securities firms accelerate the implementation of response plans.

Many market institutions predict that the scale of residents' time deposits will exceed 50 trillion yuan, and there is a demand for reallocation, which may flow into gold, funds, stocks, insurance, etc.

Tesla launches a cheaper Cybertruck model in the United States, priced at $59,990.

On Thursday, Tesla launched a new, cheaper version of the Cybertruck in the United States, priced at $59,990, making this dual-motor all-wheel drive version the "most affordable" Cybertruck to date. According to pricing information on the Tesla website, the company also lowered the price of its most expensive Cybertruck model, the Cyberbeast, from $114,990 to $99,990.

Dispel the rumors! NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) plans to invest $30 billion in OpenAI, with a pre-investment valuation of $73 billion.

According to reports, Nvidia is in deep negotiations with OpenAI, planning to invest up to $3 billion in this AI startup as part of a new round of funding.

Goldman Sachs: The combined purchasing behavior of central banks around the world and the increased gold exposure of private investors to cope with the Fed's rate cuts will drive the price of gold to slowly climb to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Kimi Claw Beta has launched, allowing for one-click deployment of OpenClaw.

Kimi Claw Beta is now available on the Kimi official website, announcing the ability to one-click cloud deployment or associate with the pre-set OpenClaw, supporting one-click access to over 5000 ClawHub community plugins, including those related to development and coding, browsers, office workflows, expert roles, etc. Along with the launch of Kimi Claw Beta, the Dark Side of the Moon also provides users with 40GB of free space and supports files to be stored and retrieved at any time. In terms of search capabilities, real-time data API can be accessed from professional financial and economic sources, providing fast and accurate information. It is reported that this feature is currently in the early experimental stage and will be first opened to Allegretto and higher tier members to experience and collect feedback.

Trump issues "final ultimatum" to Iran! Middle East situation suddenly tense, crude oil and gold prices both rise.

As US President Trump set a final deadline for negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, geopolitical risks have risen sharply, driving international oil prices and gold prices higher at the same time.

Spot gold lost the 4990 US dollars per ounce mark, falling 0.13% intraday.

Cat Eye Professional Edition data: Annual total box office exceeds 5 billion in 2026.

According to the professional version of Maoyan data, as of 11:15 on February 19th, the total annual box office for 2026 (including presales) has exceeded 5 billion.

New York gold futures broke through $5020 per ounce, rising 0.43% intraday.

In Jingshun and Kamniak are shorting US Treasury bonds, taking a bearish view on the Fed's interest rate cuts.

Portfolio managers at Invesco and Carmignac are currently playing a game of shorting US Treasury bonds, as they believe the resilience of the American economy may lead to a disappointment in interest rate cuts. They point out that the stronger-than-expected job growth in January, the significant corporate investments in artificial intelligence, and the cautious stance of Federal Reserve policymakers towards rate cuts all indicate that the economy is too robust to warrant a significant easing by the Fed. While some investors still expect rate cuts, other institutions, including French bank BNP Paribas, are skeptical and warn that if rate cuts fail to materialize as expected, US bond prices could face a sharp decline.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) surpasses Walmart Inc. (WMT.US) in annual revenue for the first time, marking a new stage in competition between the retail giants in AI.

Amazon surpasses Walmart in annual revenue for the first time, becoming the company with the highest annual revenue globally.

Federal Reserve Milan: No longer believe that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates sharply as previously expected this year.

Federal Reserve board member Stephen Milan has lowered his expectations for the magnitude of interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. In an interview, he said recent data shows the US economy is stronger than he had previously predicted. Milan stated in the interview that the latest data shows the employment situation is better than his expectations, but commodity inflation is more stubborn. Therefore, Milan said he no longer believes the Fed should cut interest rates as significantly as he had predicted two months ago. "The labor market conditions are better than my expectations over the past few months," Milan said in the interview. "There are signs that commodity inflation is becoming even more stubborn." He added, "Considering these two factors, I am retracting the prediction I made in December last year." In the Fed's quarterly dot plot in December last year, Milan had predicted that rates would fall to below 2.25% by the end of this year. Now he is leaning towards returning to the relatively moderate stance he held in September, predicting that rates will be below 2.75% by the end of 2026. Milan's latest stance means that starting from the current 3.5% to 3.75% rate level, the Fed will cut rates by a full percentage point this year. However, he remains one of the most dovish officials within the Fed, in stark contrast to the majority of officials who expect only a 25 basis point rate cut this year. This interview is worth noting because it indicates a larger divergence between Milan's views and the economic policy stance of the White House where he used to work.

Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos: Netflix movies will also be shown in theaters.

The labor market remains resilient! The number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell to a new low in over a month last week.

In the United States, initial jobless claims dropped to 206,000 for the week ending February 14, the lowest level since the week ending January 10, lower than market expectations of 225,000 and the revised previous value of 229,000.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix "adjust strategy": new storage factory production plan ahead.

SK Hynix plans to advance the trial operation of its Longzhou Phase I wafer factory to February-March next year, while Samsung Electronics will bring forward the production start time of its Pyeongtaek P4 factory from the first quarter of next year to the fourth quarter of this year, approximately three months ahead of the initial production schedule.

The United States ended the strong commercial investment in 2025 with core durable goods orders in December growing 0.6% higher than expected.

Business equipment orders in the United States in December grew more than expected, indicating that capital investment will remain steady as trade policy uncertainty gradually decreases by the end of the year.

Latest

6 m ago

J.P. Morgan expects net interest income to grow after excluding market business in 2026.

6 m ago

J.P. Morgan expects retail deposits to resume growth in 2026.

8 m ago

J.P. Morgan still expects net interest income of approximately $95 billion for the full year after excluding corporate and investment bank market businesses.

8 m ago

JPMorgan Chase expects annual net interest income to be around $104.5 billion, compared to the previous estimate of around $103 billion.

10 m ago

Industrial Bank has lowered its target stock price for Amazon from $305 per share to $304 per share, while maintaining a "buy" rating on Amazon stock.

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