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Global technology stock volatility: How to understand? How to respond?

The upcoming performance period will determine the credibility of the technology industry's prosperity. The recent disagreements and fluctuations caused by some "noise" have instead created opportunities for strategic positioning.

BOC International: The technology sector has not yet entered the stage of bubble bursting, and value stocks have not yet formed a turning point.

In general, it is not advisable to make large-scale style switches too early.

Guosheng: The three major expectations have resonated with each other, and the turning point for passive components has arrived.

The profit of passive component enterprises is expected to achieve a leap from "over one hundred million" to "over two hundred million" in a single quarter.

Guosen: Mid-term asset volatility may intensify. Equities are still the best solution.

Vibe coding is likely the first application in the AI field that can relatively clearly calculate the business cost and return on investment.

GF Securities: Was the burst of the previous science and technology bubble caused by the Fed raising interest rates?

If the expectation of interest rate hike triggers worries about a US recession, then AI will also be difficult to escape unscathed. Otherwise, the interest rate hike is nothing to fear, the key is to return to the AI industry itself.

CITIC SEC: K-shaped differentiation reaches a stage of extreme A-share trend shows greater resilience.

The current market situation has reached its peak stage of K-shaped differentiation.

What caused the big market volatility this week? Goldman Sachs partner: It's not Powell, but AI rebalancing.

Wilson's core conclusion is: this fluctuation is not a signal of the end of the AI investment cycle - "we are still in the midst of a historic investment boom" - but a deep reevaluation of the net winners and losers in this boom.

Before the July Federal Reserve decision, Powell made two "important appearances", next week being the first one!

Before the July 4th holiday, with Federal Reserve officials expected to speak very sparingly, every word spoken at the Sintra Forum will be magnified by the market. With U.S. inflation consistently exceeding the Federal Reserve's target for five consecutive years and the debate on interest rate paths still unresolved, this appearance may become the most important window for outsiders to interpret the Fed's policy thinking.

Cui Dongshu: Imported cars in the first five months of the year totaled 160,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 11%. In May, imports totaled 38,000 units, a 19% decrease.

Overall, the demand for luxury cars in the domestic and imported markets is generally weak, with greater pressure in traditional affluent areas such as Shanghai, Beijing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Chengdu. This year, the demand is stronger in central and western regions such as Kashgar, Karamay, Ali, and Aksu, which are oil-producing areas.

The US Central Command announced a new round of strikes on Iran.

The US Central Command released a statement on social media on the 27th announcing that the US military conducted a new round of strikes on multiple targets inside Iran that day.

Nobel Prize winner: AI unemployment panic may become a "self-fulfilling prophecy" Silicon Valley should not overstate the threat of AI

Schiller is worried that a similar misjudgment is happening again. He wrote, the slowdown in employment market has many reasons, but there are already reports that concerns about AI causing large-scale unemployment "are exacerbating hiring freezes and leading to a historic low in consumer confidence."

AI infrastructure investment raises inflationary pressures Analysts: The Federal Reserve faces new challenges

TD Cowen predicts that the capital expenditure of major hyperscale cloud service providers will reach $745 billion this year, and will continue to exceed $1 trillion in 2027 and 2028. According to their estimates, the spending of these giants will rise to approximately 3% of GDP next year, significantly higher than the level of less than 0.5% in 2020.

Cinda: Global liquidity has tightened and the US dollar index may enter a period of wide fluctuations in the second half of the year.

If the inflation pressure caused by geopolitical conflicts is expected to ease, the bank believes that the Fed's interest rate hike momentum may weaken, the interest rate hike may be further postponed, and the US dollar index is likely to enter a wide range of fluctuations with the receding geopolitical tide in the second half of the year.

Hong Kong Property: There were 79 second-hand public housing transactions registered in Hong Kong this month, representing a decrease of over 10% month-on-month.

Given that the signing of the sales contract to the submission for registration at the Hong Kong Land Registry requires time, the registration cases in June generally reflect the market conditions in May.

Mei Wai: Affected by the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks, trading in the Hong Kong property market slowed down in June.

Cen Songqian continued to say that in June, the transactions of both primary and secondary residential properties decreased, which is expected to drag down the overall property market trading simultaneously. The related impact will gradually become apparent in the overall property registration data for July.

New stock news | Yongkang Holdings passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and operates 18 container yards at 10 locations.

Yongkang Holdings is Singapore's leading container yard operator and the second largest container yard operator in Southeast Asia.

The US-Iran exchange of fire shatters the ceasefire illusion! The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps effectively strikes US military bases, and the "legal struggle" for the Strait of Hormuz is driving up energy shipping premiums.

The escalation of conflict directly increases the risk premium for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, putting pressure on the pricing of crude oil, shipping, and safe-haven assets.

CMSC: Short-term focus on copper prices tightening liquidity and changes in geopolitical risks. In the medium to long term, we still see the evolution of supply and demand patterns.

Looking ahead, the bank believes that global liquidity, the U.S.-Iran situation, and supply and demand fundamentals will be the three core themes affecting the copper price trend: in the short term, attention will be focused on liquidity tightening and changes in geopolitical risks, while in the medium to long term, the focus will remain on the evolution of the supply and demand situation.

Iranian Foreign Ministry: US military airstrikes violate Iran-US understandings memorandum.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 27th, condemning the US military airstrikes on multiple locations along the southern coast of Iran, stating that it violated a memorandum of understanding reached between the two parties earlier, and that Iran will uphold national sovereignty and security in accordance with international law.

New Stock News: Huada Beidou submitted its application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the third time. The company's shipments of specialized GNSS chips and modules are expected to reach 32.1 million units in 2025.

Huada Beidou is a well-known Chinese space location service provider, headquartered in Shenzhen, providing support for major GNSS chips, modules and solutions including Beidou, GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, QZSS, and NavIC.

New stock news | Daqin Numerical Capabilities to deliver to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as the fifth largest provider of ESS in the world.

According to data from Frost & Sullivan, the company is the world's fifth largest household ESS provider in terms of shipments by 2025, with shipments totaling approximately 2.5 gigawatt hours.

12 securities firms announced their compensation system on the same day, with performance-based pay accounting for up to 60% of total compensation.

CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan Securities, and 12 other securities firms announced their compensation management systems on the same day, bringing the total number to at least 34.

New Stock News | United Technology Submits Application to Hong Kong Exchange, Ranked First in China's Industrial Grade 3D Printing Equipment Companies by 2025.

According to Frost & Sullivan's data, Liantai Technology was ranked first among industrial-grade 3D printing companies in China in 2025 (based on shipment volume), with a market share of approximately 25%.

New Stock News | Huada BeiDou submits Listing Application to Hong Kong Stock Exchange

According to the disclosure on June 26 by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Hi-Target Navigation Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as Hi-Target) has submitted an application for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This is the company's third time submitting documents to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC and Ping An Securities (Hong Kong) acting as its joint sponsors.

New stock news | Dah Qin Shuneng delivers table Hong Kong Stock Exchange

According to the disclosure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 26, Daqin Digital Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as: Daqin Shuneng) has submitted an application for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Guotai Junan International as its exclusive sponsor.

New Stock News | United Technologies Submits Application to Hong Kong Stock Exchange

According to the disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 26th, Shanghai Lian Tai Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as Lian Tai Technology) has submitted an application for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Haitong International as its exclusive sponsor.

SpaceX (SPCX.US) will be included in the Nasdaq 100 on July 7, expecting $4.3 billion in passive fund inflows.

The exchange operator NASDAQ confirmed on Friday that the rocket and AI giant SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, will officially be included in the NASDAQ 100 Index, which is mainly comprised of technology stocks, on July 7th.

Insurance brokerage giant Hub International secretly submitted an application for a US IPO, planning to raise funds for debt repayment.

Insurance brokerage company Hub International Holdings Inc., supported by private equity firm Hellman & Friedman, has secretly submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with proceeds from fundraising expected to be used to reduce the company's debt burden.

After the IPO, the issuance of a large amount of bonds "upset" the market, SpaceX (SPCX.US) bonds are approaching "junk" levels, and the speed of the decline surprises traders.

After SpaceX's $25 billion bond issuance, it experienced intense selling pressure within 48 hours, with the spread on the 10-year bonds widening to over 1.6 percentage points. The long-term bond spread approached junk level, resulting in a paper loss of approximately $400 million. This sharp decline was triggered by arbitrage exits, continued losses by the company, and governance risks. This reflects a broader hidden risk in the technology debt bubble, with AI-related debt issuances increasing by 357% year-on-year, putting pressure on the credit market.

Signed an agreement, but still no use? Trump: If Europe dares to impose a digital tax, we will impose a 100% tariff.

Trump warned on Friday that any country imposing a digital services tax on American companies will immediately face a 100% tariff, and that this tariff will take precedence over any trade agreement. He said several European countries are close to implementing such taxes. The European Union has said it will react "rapidly and decisively." The White House plans to cite Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act as legal basis for this action, seen as an alternative path to bypassing a Supreme Court ruling on unconstitutionality.

SpaceX and Charter are in talks to collaborate on mobile phone services, with the satellite giant accelerating its entry into the consumer-level communication market.

SpaceX (SPCX.US) and the largest home internet service provider in the United States, Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR.US), have held executive-level discussions and are exploring potential cooperation in the consumer mobile phone business.

"Passing the Test" Successfully: Mythos 5 is granted approval by the US government, $90 billion AI unicorn faces a turning point before going public.

Anthropic PBC has received approval from the US government to partially restore conditional access to its high-performance AI model Mythos 5.

The "core logic" of the continuous decline in US stocks: the downfall of the "maximum weight" Mag 7.

This week, Mag 7 plummeted by 6%, dragging down the Nasdaq by about 4%. At the same time, the market value of Mag 7 evaporated by about $3 trillion this month, and related ETFs dropped by 13% in June, marking the worst monthly performance in history. Despite high investment in AI, the returns are uncertain, and the rise of sectors such as chips and computing power, which benefit from AI, is putting pressure on Mag 7's leadership position. Analysts say this seems more like a liquidation of crowded positions rather than a comprehensive risk-off move, but volatility is expected to continue.

National Bureau of Statistics: From January to May, the profit of the electronic industry increased by 103.9%, contributing 43.1% to the overall profit growth of all large-scale industrial enterprises.

Yu Weining said that the electronic industry's support role is obvious. From January to May, the profits of large-scale equipment manufacturing industry increased by 14.1% year-on-year, driving overall profits of all large-scale industrial enterprises to increase by 5.2 percentage points.

National Bureau of Statistics: Profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 18.8% from January to May.

In May, in terms of the profits of the main industries, the profits of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 117.1% year-on-year, the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 103.9%, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 71.6%, and the coal mining and washing industry increased by 33.5%.

Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) suffers another major loss: Vision Pro executive joins OpenAI, escalating the competition for talent in the AI field.

Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) core executive in charge of the Vision Pro headsets and smart glasses business, Paul Meade, is set to resign and join OpenAI.

Computer prices are on the rise: Prices of many popular computer models have been significantly increased.

Apple recently announced price increases of up to 16% to 25% in several global markets for certain laptop and tablet models. Prices of popular computer models in the domestic market have also seen significant hikes. At a computer retail store in Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen, the manager introduced a hot-selling gaming laptop to a reporter from CCTV Finance. The retail price of this laptop was around 7,000 yuan when it was launched in July or August last year, but now the price has exceeded 10,000 yuan at the terminal. It was found during the reporter's visit that not only the prices of popular gaming laptops had increased, but also the prices of regular business laptops had generally gone up. Models priced below 4,000 yuan last year are now hard to find, and the price increase for mid to high-end laptops ranges from 500 to 1,500 yuan. Since the fourth quarter of last year, prices of core components such as memory, hard drives, CPUs, and graphics cards have generally risen due to the surge in global demand for AI computing power. Faced with the manufacturers' price adjustment notifications, many distributors have had to frequently adjust terminal retail prices this year.

U.S. technology stocks are collectively under pressure. Is the market replaying the DeepSeek-style shock script?

Jefferies strategist pointed out that the GLM5.2 model launched by SmartBook "performs almost as well as Anthropic, but at only one-fourth of the cost per token", describing the past week as "another DeepSeek moment". The analysis suggests that low-cost AI models will impact enterprise client choices, while shaking the investment logic of AI infrastructure.

Nasdaq announces that SpaceX (SPCX.O) will be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index but needs to meet final eligibility requirements. Funds tracking this index are expected to start buying its stocks after the close on July 6th, before officially being included. SpaceX is expected to enter this tech-heavy index with a weight of less than 1%.

HK Bull/Bear Outstanding Qty Ratio(55:45) | June 27th

As of June 27, the latest bull-bear ratio of the Hang Seng Index is 55:45.

After the US and Iran signed an agreement, the US military fired for the first time, claiming the airstrikes on Iran were in response to attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian side claimed to have thwarted the US attack and will respond harshly.

The US military stated that Iran's attack on commercial ships apparently violates the ceasefire agreement, and the US military will continue to provide support for the safe navigation of merchant ships to ensure the "comprehensive and effective" implementation of the agreement. Crude oil prices narrowed their decline, with US oil falling by less than 3%. Iranian media reported that there were explosions at the port in the southern Iranian city of Sirik on Friday night. The Iranian military said they will respond quickly and decisively to the US attacks, and any new "foolish actions" will be met with a harsh response.

Overnight US stocks | The US military launches attacks on Iran, causing the three major indices to fall. Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) has its worst weekly performance since the bursting of the internet bubble in 2001.

As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 44.51 points, a decrease of 0.09%, to 51,876.11 points; the Nasdaq fell 60.99 points, a decrease of 0.24%, to 25,297.62 points; the S&P 500 index fell 3.47 points, a decrease of 0.05%, to 7,354.02 points.

Goldman Sachs former partner warns: US stock valuations are too perfect, and signs of weakness are emerging in the job market.

Former Goldman Sachs partner and current Columbia Business School professor Abby Joseph Cohen says that the current high valuation of US stocks may be masking the real risks that investors should be paying attention to, especially the signs of weakness in the US job market.

The stock price of Strategy (MSTR.US) has evaporated by over 80% from its high point, causing its valuation to fall below its holding value. Its financing model is facing a test.

Once considered the most successful bitcoin investment experiment on Wall Street, it is now facing more and more investors' doubts.

AI market downturn deals heavy blow to speculative products, multiple ETFs plummet. Analyst: Using leverage is no different from "playing with fire."

This week's technology stock plunge not only ended the hottest AI trading trend of the year, but also exposed another side of modern financial market speculation mechanisms. When market sentiment reverses, high leverage investment products built around hot topics will simultaneously amplify the decline.

OpenAI's plan to postpone its IPO has caused concerns about a cooling of the heat in the AI capital market. Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS.US) and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS.US) dropped more than 4% at one point.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs stock prices fell more than 4% on Friday.

AI computing power demand continues to be hot! Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) Cloud computing business AWS once again raised GPU capacity reservation service prices.

Amazon's cloud computing business AWS announced that it will increase the prices of machine learning-specific EC2 Capacity Blocks reserved capacity services starting from July 1st, involving multiple cloud computing instances equipped with NVIDIA GPUs.

US Stock Market Move | The concept stock of optical communication is falling across the board, with Lumentum (LITE.US) dropping over 9%.

On Friday, stocks related to the concept of optical communication plummeted, with Lumentum (LITE.US) falling more than 9%.

US Stock Market Move | Popular Chinese concept stocks have risen across the board, with shares of CHA.US rising more than 5%.

On Friday, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.05%, popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, NetEase (NTES.US) rose by over 6%, and HUYA Inc. (CHA.US) rose by over 5%.

US Stock Market Move | IBM (IBM.US) rose nearly 4% with the launch of the world's first sub-1 nanometer chip manufacturing process technology.

On Friday, IBM (IBM.US) surged nearly 4%, closing at $268.35.

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