GMT EIGHT - Commercial - Global

Trump Confirms Reciprocal Tariff Framework as Deadline Approaches: Canada’s Rate Raised to 35%, Others Ranging from 10% to 41%

State Subsidies Introduced for Personal and Service Sector Loans as Financial Institutions Urged to Deliver Targeted Credit Solutions

Fed Makes Key Announcement in Early Morning Hours, Powell Issues Statement

China and the United States to Extend Suspended 24% Reciprocal Tariffs and Countermeasures for 90 Days

Borrowing Forecast Raised by 82%: U.S. Treasury’s Q3 Issuance Exceeds $1 Trillion Following Debt Ceiling Lift

Manufacturing Slump Deepens in China as Exports Drag

China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month in July, with the S&P Global PMI falling to 49.5, highlighting a sharper-than-expected slowdown. Export orders declined for the 15th straight month, while domestic demand remained weak amid ongoing property sector stress and muted consumer spending.

Top 5 U.S. Export Items Vulnerable to Tariff Impacts

New U.S. tariffs on imported goods like coffee, apparel, and electronics are predicted by economists to increase costs for businesses and directly burden American consumers, potentially hindering U.S. economic growth and contrasting with the global commitment to free trade.

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Markets Reassess Expectations for Rate Cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% and signaled no imminent rate cuts, citing persistent inflation and the need for more data. Market expectations for a September cut fell sharply to 46%, triggering a rise in Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Small-cap stocks declined, while defensive and export-focused sectors gained. Despite political pressure from President Trump, the Fed reiterated its inflation-fighting stance. Investors now anticipate the first rate cut could be delayed until late 2025 unless inflation trends lower.

Taiwan Awaits Washington’s Green Light for Landmark Tariff-Cut Deal

Taiwan’s cabinet says bilateral tariff-reduction negotiations under the 21st-Century Trade Initiative are finished and Taipei is waiting for Washington’s internal sign-off. The deal, completed two years after talks began, would slash duties on US$105 billion of annual two-way goods trade and give Taiwan’s export-led economy a timely boost as it looks to diversify away from China.

China’s Politburo signals fresh macro support while tightening the reins on unfair competition

China’s top decision-makers used the July 30 Politburo meeting to promise “stronger macro-policy adjustment” for a sputtering economy and, in the same breath, to order a clamp-down on what they called “disorderly competition” in hot new industries such as artificial-intelligence platforms and electric vehicles.

European Stocks Dip as Tariff Pressures and Earnings Drive Volatility

On July 30, 2025, European markets dipped slightly as investors reacted to mixed corporate earnings and rising concerns over U.S. tariffs. The STOXX 600 fell 0.1%, Germany’s DAX slipped 0.1%, while France’s CAC 40 rose 0.2%. Shares of Adidas dropped 5.4% after warning that tariffs could cost it €200 million in H2. UBS gained on strong earnings, while HSBC fell 3.4% on weak results.

Stablecoins Emerge as a Strategic U.S. Asset Amid BRICS De-dollarization Push

Stablecoins, backed by new U.S. legislation and championed by Tether’s CEO Paolo Ardoino, are emerging as a strategic tool to reinforce the U.S. dollar’s global dominance and counter BRICS-led de-dollarization efforts.

Fed Holds Steady on Interest Rates as Inflation Stays Elevated

The U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it will not cut interest rates soon, as core inflation remains elevated around 2.7%—well above its 2% target. Despite some signs of economic cooling, strong wage growth and global trade-related cost pressures are keeping inflation persistent.

US and EU Near Tariff Deal Amidst China Tensions

The U.S. and EU are nearing a trade deal involving a 15% tariff to avoid higher duties, while simultaneously, a critical China-EU summit in Beijing faces low expectations due to escalating trade imbalances and geopolitical tensions.

Global Markets Rally on U.S.–Japan Trade Agreement

Global equity markets surged after the U.S. and Japan announced a trade deal cutting tariffs on Japanese auto imports from 25% to 15%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 3.5%, led by strong gains in Toyota (+14%), Honda (+11%), and Nissan (+8%). The rally spread to Europe, with the Euro STOXX 600 up 1% and Germany’s DAX also gaining. U.S. stock futures moved higher, the dollar weakened slightly against the yen, and Japanese bond yields rose. Brent crude prices stabilized. The deal raised hopes for further trade breakthroughs, particularly ahead of U.S.–EU talks, boosting overall investor confidence.

Trump Media Commits $2 Billion to Bitcoin in Strategic Expansion into Digital Finance

Trump Media has invested $2 billion in Bitcoin and related assets as part of a broader strategy to expand into digital finance and diversify its revenue streams.

Is Resignation the Path to Protecting Federal Reserve Independence?

To safeguard its autonomy from political meddling, the Federal Reserve faces a critical decision regarding Jerome Powell, as intense scrutiny is placed upon whether the current Chair's resignation could best preserve the institution's independence.

Global Oil Prices Waver Amidst Tariff Worries and Shifting Demand Outlook

Global oil prices are experiencing downward pressure due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff decisions and concerns about flagging fuel demand. Despite some offsetting factors like potential diesel supply tightening, the market remains cautious as significant geopolitical developments and inventory data introduce volatility.

After Luna's Echo: South Korea Forges Ahead with Digital Currency Amid Central Bank's Cautionary Stance

South Korea is advancing with plans for a won-pegged stablecoin, despite warnings from its central bank regarding financial stability, as nations worldwide, including the U.S. with its new GENIUS Act and China exploring yuan-pegged stablecoins in Hong Kong, race to regulate and adopt digital currencies.

ECB Expected to Pause Rate Cuts Amid Rising Trade Tensions and Strong Euro

The European Central Bank is expected to pause its rate cuts, keeping the main rate at 2%, amid rising trade tensions and a stronger euro. The upcoming 30% U.S. tariff on EU exports could trim eurozone GDP by 0.5 percentage point, prompting policymakers to reassess further easing. With inflation nearing the 2% target and the euro approaching $1.20, concerns about competitiveness are growing. While some expect more cuts later in 2025, others foresee a longer pause. Investors will closely watch the ECB’s next decision as Europe faces growing external risks and internal economic fragility.

Fed’s Waller Advocates July Rate Cut Amid Slowing Growth and Labor Market Risks

On July 18, 2025, Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the upcoming July 29–30 meeting, citing slowing growth and rising labor market risks. He downplayed the inflationary impact of new U.S. tariffs, calling them temporary, and advocated a shift to a more neutral policy stance.

Wall Street Hits Record Highs on Strong U.S. Economic Data

On July 18, 2025, U.S. stock markets hit record highs as strong retail sales, a sharp Philadelphia Fed Index rebound, and an upgraded GDP growth forecast (2.4%) boosted investor confidence. Robust earnings from United Airlines and PepsiCo also supported gains, especially in consumer and industrial sectors. Despite Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell, markets remained steady. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, while Treasury yields rose. Global markets followed suit, with TSMC shares climbing on strong AI chip demand. Focus now shifts to inflation data and Fed decisions in the coming weeks.

Indonesia and U.S. Strike Trade Deal Amid Rising Global Tensions

Indonesia has finalized the framework of a new trade agreement with the United States, granting tariff-free access to American goods while accepting a steep 19% duty on its exports to the U.S. The deal, reached under pressure from the Trump administration, reflects Washington’s broader strategy to reshape global supply chains and limit China’s trade influence—leaving Indonesia navigating a precarious economic balancing act.

Stablecoin Legislation Sparks Surge in Circle Internet Stock

Shares of Circle Internet Group surged after the U.S. Senate passed landmark stablecoin legislation, signaling growing regulatory clarity and investor confidence in compliant digital asset platforms. The unexpected upside highlights how policy developments can turbocharge crypto-related equities, but it also raises questions about long-term valuations and regulatory execution.

Oil Prices Rebound as Inventories Decline Amid Global Trade Optimism

Oil prices recovered due to a surprising drop in U.S. crude inventories and positive global trade developments. Key producers like the UAE, Iraq, and Brazil are aggressively expanding output, indicating a sustained commitment to oil supply despite environmental goals. This market dynamic reflects both immediate demand signals and long-term production strategies.

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