HK Stock Market Move | NEW ORIENTAL-S (09901) increases by more than 5%. The overall development trend of the group's business is stable. The increase in shareholder returns may have a positive catalytic effect on it.

New Oriental-S (09901) rose more than 5%, up 5.47% to HK$41.62 as of press time, with a turnover of HK$1.14 billion. Guosheng Securities released a research report stating that as of FY25Q4, the company's deferred revenue (customer advances) amounted to $1.955 billion (YoY + 9.8%), with revenue growth maintained on the payment side, ensuring future revenue to a certain extent. The company expects net revenue for FY2026Q1 (including EAST BUY) to increase by 2% to 5% to $1.464 to $1.507 billion, with guidance being conservative mainly due to high base effects in FY25Q1 and a rescheduling of K12 business settlement periods caused by the early Chinese New Year in 2025. The company forecasts a 5% to 10% increase in net revenue for FY2026 (including EAST BUY) to $5.145 to $5.390 billion, slightly lower than the guidance given in the previous quarter, mainly due to the continued negative impact of macroeconomic and international relations changes on the study abroad business. It is expected that revenue growth for FY26Q2 will exceed that of FY26Q1, accelerating in the remaining time of the year. Daiwa noted that after reviewing the operating performance of New Oriental-S in the summer semester of 2025 and the financial performance of its subsidiary EAST BUY in FY2025, the overall business development of the group is stabilizing, with improvements in K-9 autumn student retention rate and no further deterioration in overseas exam preparation business. New Oriental also announced that starting from FY2026, it plans to distribute no less than 50% of its net profit attributable to shareholders in the previous fiscal year in the form of dividends or share buybacks. Daiwa believes that the proportion of shareholder returns may significantly exceed the group's commitment of 50%, reaching high double-digit percentages or even exceeding 100%, which is believed to be a key positive catalyst for the stock.