Join the optimistic camp of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley! Barclays cheers: US stocks are showing the best buying opportunity in nearly a year.

Barclays Bank's Alex Altmann pointed out that the US stock market is sending the strongest buy signal in almost a year. He has joined the growing camp of optimism on Wall Street, believing that the worst phase of the recent selling spree may be behind us. Altmann, Barclays' global stock tactics strategy director, stated in a client report on Tuesday that the bank's Barclays Equity Timing Indicator (BETI) had dropped to -8.3 overnight, reaching its lowest level since the Trump tariff turmoil in April last year. This indicator has hit a level historically indicating an "extremely attractive" entry point for stocks. The BETI indicator integrates 19 input variables such as market internals, positioning, sentiment, and macroeconomic data, aimed at identifying tactical turning points in the stock market. Historical data shows that when the indicator is above +7, it predicts poor future returns; when it is below -7, it corresponds to a favorable environment for stock market rebounds. Barclays data shows that since 2015, when the indicator falls within the -8 to -7 range, the average return for the S&P 500 index over the following 42 days is 6.6%, with a high success rate of 92%; based on 38 observed samples, the median return rate is 5.1%. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.3%, accumulating a 1.3% increase for the week, marking the best two-day performance since the Iran conflict broke out. The report points out that the recent reading of pessimism partially reflects the deterioration of the S&P 500 index change rate. Although the retracement of the index from its earlier highs this year may not seem significant in absolute terms, considering the unusually low volatility and narrow trading ranges of the previous six months, this retracement appears particularly pronounced. Other influencing factors include the sharp repricing of high yield credit spreads - even though their absolute levels are relatively moderate - and the steep drop in Barclays' stock fanaticism indicator, both indicating a rapid decline in bullish sentiment. Altmann wrote, "Barclays' stock tactics strategy team believes that during this S&P 500 index retracement period, US stock market risks remain attractive." He also added that the relative restraint in positions of systematic traders and active traders may amplify any potential upward momentum. "Violent Beta Short Squeeze" market expected Altmann stated that currently, commodity trading advisors (CTAs) positions are roughly flat or slightly short, and hedge funds' net exposure is in the 30%-40% percentile range, increasing the possibility of a "violent beta short squeeze" market. This means that even if short-term fund participation is low, it may still drive stock indices back to historical highs. This month, US stocks have been under pressure due to escalating geopolitical risks, but signs of stability have appeared. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.4% on Tuesday, rebounding from a key technical support level after ending a four-day decline on Monday. Although the Middle East conflict has entered its third week, concerns remain in the market regarding the potential impact of artificial intelligence and worries in the private credit sector, but investors have already begun "buying on dips." Altmann is one of the increasing number of market experts predicting a stock market rebound. Earlier this week, strategists from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan all pointed out that earnings growth valuations (although still relatively high, are not as extreme as before) will provide support for the market. In early March, Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities also reversed his bearish view on US stocks, citing factors such as retail fund inflows, volatility resets, and seasonal bullish factors at play.