Huatai Securities: Semiconductor equipment in the second half of the year may accelerate in the "east rising, west falling" market in China.

Huatai Securities pointed out that the semiconductor equipment market in China may accelerate in the second half of the year with mixed trends. According to the performance statistics of 32 global semiconductor manufacturing companies and 20 equipment companies, the total revenue of global equipment companies increased by 24% year-on-year to $34 billion in the second quarter of 2025. Among them, the overseas market is led by AI-related investments, with a 40% year-on-year growth in market size, especially significant growth in back-end equipment such as test machines. Due to the high base effect last year, the Chinese market saw a slight decrease of 1% in the first half of 2025, exhibiting different cyclical characteristics compared to overseas markets. Based on the analysis of the guidance provided by the above-mentioned companies, it is believed that the semiconductor capital expenditure in 2025 will increase by 14% year-on-year to reach $148 billion; the global equipment market size is expected to grow by 12% year-on-year to reach a forecast of $142 billion. Huatai Securities believes that: 1) In the second half of 2025, the Chinese market is expected to continue its investment cycle dominated by advanced processes, and it is optimistic about the investment opportunities for local equipment companies to increase their market share. 2) The overseas market may enter a period of overall slowing growth. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in investment pace of major companies such as Intel and investment opportunities related to AI demand.