CICC: The performance of the liquor industry this year may show a trend of initial suppression followed by later improvement.

On May 9th, a research report from Guotai Junan Securities stated that the current liquor sector is facing a certain demand gap, and the future recovery of the liquor industry from the cyclical bottom cannot be achieved without demand support. The research report from Guotai Junan Securities believes that the current liquor demand environment is at a historical low, with limited downside risks. The relatively loose policies provide a foundation for consumer recovery, and economic data from January to March has shown some positive signs. It is expected that more supportive policies will help stabilize and boost liquor demand. In the future, liquor demand may gradually increase at a slow pace. In the short term, mass demand is relatively inflexible, and banquet demand may see some improvement due to the low base period. From a medium-term perspective, policies are likely to stimulate the stabilization of demand for high-end liquor. The performance of the liquor sector for the whole year may show a trend of initially weakening and then improving under the support of the low base period from the third and fourth quarters of last year.