CITIC Securities: Short-term uncertainty coexists with long-term opportunities, and only after the interest rate hike lands will we see the dawn.

After missing this round of interest rate hikes, regardless of whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in September, the valuations of U.S. stocks face pressure in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, the conclusion of interest rate hikes is expected to relieve valuation constraints. Coupled with the positive stance of the "Productivity and Employment Working Group" on AI, the narrative of AI in U.S. stocks is likely to continue in the long run. On July 29, the FOMC decided to hold rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, with three voting members supporting a 25bps increase. Disagreements within the Fed have become public, leading to a "short-end dovish, long-end hawkish" split reaction in the market. Rising inflation expectations have pressured the dollar and provided a window for the Japanese Ministry of Finance to intervene in the currency market. The high growth rate of CSP cloud services somewhat alleviated concerns about the sustainability of AI's triple capital expenditures. Short-term interest rate-sensitive sectors, high valuation low growth segments, and small-cap stocks are under pressure. The next liquidity expectation shift window should focus on the Jackson Hole conference at the end of August or the September meeting.