Lates News

According to CICC Research, since mid to late June, there has been a significant global pullback in the AI sector, especially in South Korea, which has been the most severe due to "high leverage, high crowding, and high retail participation." This is driven not only by the magnifying effect of high crowding and leverage but also by macroeconomic disturbances (such as rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and renewed blockades in the Strait of Hormuz pushing up oil prices) and concerns about a potential bubble reignited by the current AI advancements (such as the decline in token spending on computational resources from Meta). In fact, prior to the final collapse of the tech bubble in March 2000, there were at least four substantial and prolonged pullbacks in the tech stocks. The factors triggering the decline are highly similar to those in the current adjustment: short-term fluctuations in industry trends; "headwinds" in the macro environment; and overheated valuation sentiment. Ultimately, the ability of tech stocks to rebound again was due to the alleviation of pressures from these three aspects. Therefore, for the current market to stabilize or even initiate a new upward trend, it requires the coordination of these three elements: digestion of high crowding and high leverage (to a large extent), alleviation of Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations or a definitive outcome (monitoring the July FOMC), and, crucially, new catalysts from earnings reports and industry developments (the July-August earnings season).