Citic Securities: Maintain the forecast of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December.

The research report from CITIC Securities stated that in September 2025, both the number of non-farm jobs and the unemployment rate in the United States exceeded expectations. The two core indicators showed differentiation, with the unemployment rate being a relatively "more real" data and the addition of new jobs possibly subject to revision, a relatively "more virtual" data. We believe that for the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates in December, the unemployment rate is more important. With two decimal places, the unemployment rate in September rose to 4.44%, continuing to rise for three consecutive months. The Federal Reserve may find it difficult to argue that the unemployment rate did not rise to 4.5% or higher in October and November during the December rate meeting. Furthermore, the September non-farm report is not the final data on the US job market before the December rate meeting, as the weakening job market will continue to be reflected in subsequent economic data. The 12 dovish members among the 12 voting members in December still hold the majority, and we maintain our previous view that December may see a "close call" rate cut of 25bps.