Galaxy Securities: The economic fundamentals of 2026 will present a combination of "sustained growth resilience + low price rebound".

Galaxy Securities research report stated that the economic fundamentals in 2026 will present a combination of "resilient growth + low-price rebound". It is expected that the real GDP growth in 2026 will be 5.0%, with growth rates for each quarter at 5.2%, 5.0%, 4.9%, and 4.8% respectively; nominal GDP growth will be 4.8%, a significant increase compared to 2025. In terms of consumption, total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to increase by 4.7%, with the policy of replacing old products with new ones providing some support to durable goods consumption, and service consumption performing better. In terms of investment, fixed-asset investment will grow by 2.4%, with the construction of a modern industrial system on the rise and investment in the manufacturing sector maintaining a high growth rate. In the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan", the ample supply of projects and funds will support the growth of infrastructure investment. However, the high inventory of the real estate market will restrain sales, land acquisitions, and new construction, while real estate development investment continues to seek a bottom. It is predicted that the export growth rate in 2026, measured in US dollars, will be 4.4%. With a loose fiscal and monetary policy environment, global trade demand is expected to maintain stable growth, and China's manufacturing advantage will continue to be evident. Trade friction is being monitored, with export pace remaining steady. The combination of stimulating domestic demand and preventing overwork will drive a low-price rebound, with the CPI expected to grow by 0.4% in 2026 and the PPI narrowing its decline to -1.1%.