Goldman Sachs: Gulf oil exports have significantly rebounded from the low point in March, but are only about two-thirds of pre-war levels.

Goldman Sachs estimated in a research report released on Thursday that total oil exports from the Gulf region have recovered to about 15 to 16 million barrels per day, marking a significant rebound in export volumes from the low point during the conflict, although still far below pre-war levels. The estimates derived from two independent methods show that current export levels are 7 to 8 million barrels per day lower than before the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, but they are 5 to 6 million barrels per day higher than the low point in March. Although Goldman Sachs's overall data focuses on the total flow in the Gulf region rather than specifically on the transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz, the firm pointed out that the rebound in export volumes suggests that the traffic in the Strait itself may be approaching the daily range of 8 to 10 million barrels previously estimated by U.S. officials. Since the conflict disrupted normal shipping at the end of February, this critical waterway, which accounts for about one-fifth of the world's maritime oil and liquefied natural gas supply, is undergoing a significant yet incomplete recovery. Goldman Sachs attributes part of this recovery to the adaptive measures taken by producers and shipping companies in the ongoing turmoil. The report specifically mentions an increase in dark shipping (where specialized shippers cross while reducing transponder visibility) and ship-to-ship transfers, indicating that market participants have adjusted logistics strategies to maintain crude oil flows in a high-risk environment. Goldman Sachs also stated that in a scenario of ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East, there remains greater upside potential for prices of European natural gas and long-term oil products contracts than for the crude oil price itself. This viewpoint suggests that Goldman Sachs believes the longer-term pressures created by the conflict will focus on downstream supply chains and related energy markets, rather than on crude oil itselfthe aforementioned adaptive shipping behavior has, to some extent, supported the crude oil market. On Thursday, October delivery Brent crude oil futures closed at $89.70 per barrel, rising by 2.12% and ending three consecutive days of decline. This was after reports indicated that the Trump administration had no intention of re-accepting the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June. The June agreement was originally planned to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for relaxing sanctions and allowing Iran to access overseas frozen funds, and to initiate negotiations on nuclear issues and ending the war, but it broke down weeks later following Iranian attacks on vessels. The gradual rebound in Gulf export data, combined with a cooling market expectation for a diplomatic resolution to the Iranian issue in the short term, outlines the current core contradiction in the oil market: the supply side is gradually recovering, but geopolitical and military conflicts are far from over.