MIRXES-B (02629) surged 93% to a new high: technology and capital resonate in the "shake-break" cycle

Hong Kong stocks biotechnology sector reappeared strong target on August 15 - MIRXES-B(02629), intraday once rose to 44.98 Hong Kong dollars, refreshing the historical high since listing, with a cumulative increase of over 93% compared to the IPO price of 23.3 Hong Kong dollars, becoming the leading stock among recent pharmaceutical new stocks. As of the close of August 15, the stock was quoted at 44.22 Hong Kong dollars, with a trading volume of 1.16 million shares and a total market value of 12.22 billion Hong Kong dollars. The "listing is a decisive battle" full circulation model included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect with high certainty In the Hong Kong stock market, for newly listed companies, entering the Hong Kong Stock Connect has almost become a required course. Reviewing the performance of leading companies in the core assets of innovative drugs and new consumption in the Hong Kong stock market in recent years, entering the Connect at different points in time often leads to monthly-level stock price increases. MIRXES-B as a "Connect concept" stock seems to have been nailed to enter the Connect. According to forecasts, it is expected that the minimum market value threshold for new admissions is 7.166 billion Hong Kong dollars. As of June 30, MIRXES-B's daily average market value was 8.565 billion Hong Kong dollars, already meeting the standards. It is worth noting that MIRXES-B's full circulation structure differs from the traditional "Connect concept" stocks that rise through continuous increases. Firstly, exemption from selling pressure. Full circulation listing is 100% circulation, with no subsequent unlocking pressure. Secondly, stable valuation, not easily affected by unlocking fluctuations, with a relatively stable volatility rate, making investors more willing to hold long term. Public information shows that MIRXES-B boosted its stock price at the beginning of its listing through the "tight supply callback" strategy. According to the issuance results, the company publicly received 25.51 times the subscription for the public portion and 0.98 times the subscription for the allocation portion. Institutions deliberately lowered the subscription for the allocation portion to less than enough, while the public portion was oversubscribed by more than 15 times, triggering a special callback clause, limiting the public portion to within 20%. In the end, they respectively accounted for 12.60% and 87.40% of the total issue, which is a "routine callback." The purpose of the tight supply callback is to reduce retail supply and concentrate chips for easier control and price increases. As expected, MIRXES-B skyrocketed by 33.91% in the dark market and gained 28.76% on the first day. The cycle of "shaking out and breaking out" continues According to observations, since its listing on May 23, MIRXES-B has repeated the operating path of "shaking out and breaking out." The first stage (May 23 to June 20) can be divided into the shaking out period from May 23 to June 13 and the breakout period from June 16 to June 20. Specifically, from May 23 to June 13, funds cleaned up floating chips through wide fluctuations (16.9% amplitude) and collected chips at low levels to accumulate strength for subsequent increases. During this period, the battle between long and short positions was intense (7 up, 9 down) but the price remained stagnant, with diverging volume and price (162.8 million negative volume vs 207.3 million positive volume) leading to a price increase of only 0.34%. In addition, chips were fully exchanged, with a high turnover rate of 13.395%, and the volume on up days (917.874 million) was significantly higher than on down days (98.86 million), indicating obvious signs of back and forth trading by funds, with chips accumulating at low levels (25.7 yuan to 28.8 yuan). During this period, the active chip collectors were Minyin Securities, China International Financial Hong Kong Securities, Huatong Securities, Wing Lung Bank, and Universe (International) Securities, with their holdings increasing by 2.42%, 0.5068%, 0.1818%, 0.1410%, and 0.1261% respectively. It is worth noting that Minyin Securities bought 6.6575 million shares on May 29, increasing its holdings by 2.42%. China International Financial Hong Kong Securities and Jianyin International Securities were the joint sponsors of the company. After completing the collection of chips at low levels, the breakout period (June 16 to June 20) arrived. During this period, there was a 19.07% rise in 5 days, with significantly increased fund control. Specifically, all 5 trading days were positive, with volume and price both rising. The turnover rate was 3.216%, indicating increased fund control, with an average price of 32.357, establishing a new support level. Compared to the price of 44.22, the profit for this batch of chips was 34%. The top four selling positions during this period were Huatong Securities, Golden Apricot Capital (Hong Kong), Futu Securities International Hong Kong, and Universe (International) Securities, with their holdings decreasing by 0.4355%, 0.1122%, 0.0671%, and 0.0278%, respectively. The second stage (June 24 to August 15) can be divided into the shaking out period from June 24 to August 1 and the breakout period from August 4 to 15. During the shaking out period from June 24 to August 1, the long and short positions balanced out to settle chips. The number of rising and falling days was nearly equal (13 up, 14 down), but the negative volume (9.21 million) was greater than the positive volume (7.47 million), resulting in an accumulated price decline of 8.92% and an amplitude of 16.2%, showing characteristics of "shrinking volume and declining price." The turnover rate decreased significantly from the previous period (13.395%) to 6.042%, indicating a decrease in floating chips. The top three securities firms collecting chips during this period were Minyin Securities, Jianyin International Securities, and Citibank, with their holdings increasing by 1.2%, 1.11%, and 0.3532% respectively. It is worth noting that Minyin Securities once again topped the list, buying 1.3246 million shares on July 10 and 1.9894 million shares on July 17; their holdings increased by 0.48% and 0.72% respectively. Jianyin International Securities bought 3.068 million shares on July 22, increasing their holdings by 1.11%. As mentioned earlier, Jianyin International Securities is one of the company's joint sponsors. During the breakout period from August 4 to 15, there was a significant rise of 44.27% in 10 days, with an amplitude of 47.9%, and positive volume was 17.7 times the negative volume, with 90% of candles being positive, showing extreme bullish momentum. The turnover rate was only 1.565%, indicating high fund control, and the average price of 35.722 yuan became the new support level. The chip position below 30 yuan decreased to 12%, possibly indicating a familiarity with original profit positions. During this period, the top three selling positions were Minyin Zhengquan, Huatong Securities, Li Fu Mo'er Securities, and Universe (International) Securities, with their holdings decreasing by 0.1230%, 0.0871%, 0.0554%, and 0.0301% respectively. In summary, MIRXES-B has presented a typical cycle of "shaking out and breaking out" since its listing, with highly structured fund manipulation. In the first stage (May 23 - June 20), a 16.9% amplitude was completed to clean up the chips, with Minyin Securities, China International Financial Holding, and other institutions buying at low levels, propelling the stock to break out by 19.07%. In the second stage (June 24 - August 15), there was a reduced volume washout and violent rise, with the joint sponsorship of Jianyin International and Minyin Securities continuing to increase their holdings, ultimately achieving a 44.27% breakout. The entire process demonstrates three main characteristics: 1. Joint operations between securities firms and joint sponsors (Minyin/Jianyin holdings changes dominated); 2. Precise volume control (Turnover rate during washing out period 13.4% 1.6% during breakout period); 3. Clear chip positioning (only 12% of profit chips remaining below 30 yuan). The current stock price of 44.22 Hong Kong dollars represents a profit of over 35% compared to the overall cost. Leading global miRNA early screening technology with abundant market growth potential According to the prospectus, MIRXES-B was established in 2014 and is a Singapore-based microRNA (miRNA) technology company dedicated to making disease screening and diagnostic solutions available in key Asian markets (including Singapore and China). The company currently has a core product (GASTROClear), which is the world's first and only molecular diagnostic IVD product approved for gastric cancer screening. Two other commercial products (LUNGClear and Fortitude) are differentiated for lung and colorectal cancer screening. Six preclinical candidate products cover high-incidence cancers such as breast and liver cancer. The company's technological moat lies in its miRNA detection sensitivity of 87% (traditional tumor markers are only 50-60%), dual certification by the Health Sciences Authority of Singapore (HSA) and the National Medical Products Administration of China (NMPA), and core patent protection until 2038 (Singapore Patent SG10201808969Q). With its technological barriers, MIRXES-B has the potential to reach the billion-dollar market growth level. Data shows that there is a huge market opportunity for GASTROClear. In terms of market size, the market for cancer screening in selected regions such as Southeast Asia, China, Japan, and the United States was 504 billion US dollars in 2023 and is expected to grow to 828 billion US dollars by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.3%. Furthermore, the penetration rate of gastric cancer screening in China and Japan in the selected regions is rapidly increasing. In China, the penetration rate of gastric cancer screening for high-risk populations is expected to increase from 21.6% in 2019 to 27.8% in 2023, reaching 67.0% by 2033 and surpassing Japan. In terms of competitive landscape, the company's GASTROClear is the only molecular diagnostic IVD product approved for gastric cancer screening in the global market. According to the prospectus, by revenue in 2023, the company holds the largest market share in gastric cancer screening in Southeast Asia, reaching 66.3%. In the niche field of gastric cancer screening, Mirui has a technological and clinical basis and is the only product permitted in this niche field. Although current financial performance needs improvement, its technology barriers and product licensing qualifications still have significant long-term potential given the rapid development of precision medicine markets. In conclusion, MIRXES-B resonates with both technical and fundamental aspects, with its leading global miRNA early screening technology and funding control advantages under a full circulation structure. Since its listing, the stock price has performed well, with a cumulative increase of over 93%, making it a focus in the Hong Kong biotechnology sector. In the medium to long term, the company's core product GASTROClear has a billion-dollar market potential, progress in China's medical insurance negotiations, and expectations of inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect remain key drivers of valuation enhancement.