WTO Reports Strong Growth in Global Goods Trade Amid Tariff-Driven Import Surge, but Warns of Potential Slowdown

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reported that global merchandise trade accelerated in early 2025, largely due to a surge in imports that offset weaker export demand. According to the WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer released on June 26, the global merchandise trade index rose to 103.5, up from 102.8 in March, reaching its highest level since August 2021. The index, which remains above the benchmark value of 100, signals continued expansion in global trade volumes.

The WTO noted that the recent surge was driven by importers advancing their purchasing schedules in anticipation of higher tariffs. The report highlighted that U.S. President Trump has implemented additional tariffs on goods entering the United States and has threatened further increases, prompting businesses to front-load orders to mitigate potential cost pressures. However, the organization cautioned that this pace may not be sustained, as evidenced by a decline in export orders. The new export orders index fell to 97.9, dipping below the baseline of 100, suggesting that global trade growth could weaken in the coming months.

The WTO further warned that if “reciprocal tariffs” in the United States are fully enacted or if uncertainty surrounding trade policy escalates globally, there is a risk of contraction in trade volumes. The report emphasized that the recent growth might be temporary, and as inventory levels normalize, the impetus behind the current trade expansion could diminish.