Value stocks take over the "rebound flag" of US stocks! Dividend defense strategy is favored by funds and helps the S&P 500 index to rise for the fourth consecutive day.
The U.S. stock market has risen for four consecutive trading days, with the S&P 500 index up 0.4%, driven mainly by the rise in value stocks such as utilities, consumer staples, and real estate.
It was understood that the so-called value stocks collectively strengthened, bringing a strong boost, and on Thursday, the US stock market rose again, with the S&P 500 index recording four consecutive trading days of gains. Focus on the "high dividend" type of value stocks took over the "bottom rebound flag" from the large tech giants (including Tesla, Inc., NVIDIA Corporation, and Apple Inc.) who had led the US stock market for three consecutive days on Thursday. The overall strong performance of value stocks offset the negative impact of weak performance from the technology, retail, and energy sectors.
The latest statistics show that as of Thursday's close, with the strong support of value stocks, the S&P 500 index rose 0.4%, while the Nasdaq 100 index, considered a "global technology stock indicator," rose only 0.1%. This was mainly due to the seven major tech giants, which have a high weighting in the index, seeing their stock prices collectively decline, after leading the way in the previous three trading days with impressive performances, pushing the US stock market to completely recover from the losses since the "liberation day" in early April (when the Trump administration announced aggressive tariff measures that caused global financial markets to plummet).
In Thursday's rally in the US stock market, the utilities, consumer staples, and real estate sectors, which have relatively lower valuations but consistent dividend payouts, led the gains, with companies like American Water Works, Campbell Soup Company, and Invitation Homes Inc. seeing significant increases in stock prices, driving the S&P 500 index to be only 3.7% away from its historical high in February.
Unexpectedly weak retail sales and producer price data for April reinforced expectations of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a decline in US Treasury bond yields and a significant rebound in bond prices. The market's economic concerns were reflected in the latest results from retail giant Walmart Inc. - although sales and profits were solid, the first-quarter operating profit of one of the world's largest retailers declined, and the company warned of future price increases due to rising tariffs, causing the stock price to fall by 0.5%.
Why is the dividend-paying defensive strategy favored? Mainly because the US economic outlook is still uncertain.
"The recent leadership of dividend payers shows that some large institutional investors are still adopting a defensive investment strategy, prioritizing profit margins over actual sales growth," said Frank Monkam, head of macro trading at Buffalo Bayou Commodities.
The S&P 500 index continued its bottom rebound pace in the weeks following expectations of a more moderate tariff policy push by President Trump. However, the actual impact of the current tariff policy on the US economy and the future direction of global trade wars remain uncertain.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in an interview on Thursday that even with significant tariff reductions by both the US and China, the US economy still faces the possibility of a severe recession. JPMorgan's chief US economist, Michael Feroli, said in a report to clients on Tuesday that the likelihood of a US economic recession "remains high but is now below 50%".
Some hedge funds have indicated this week that a potentially years-long "dollar bear market" has just begun, with the trigger being the chaotic and disruptive "US economic transformation action" of the Trump administration that upends the global trade system. In particular, the unpredictable tariff measures of the Trump administration have caused significant financial market turmoil, shaking investor confidence in US dollar assets irreversibly.
For over a decade, the "American exceptionalism" has swept the globe, and investors in the US market have enjoyed the best returns globally, but now the "American exceptionalism" is showing significant cracks, with the recent launch or planned implementation of a series of aggressive external tariff policies by the Trump administration causing increasing concerns among investors about the US economy falling into "stagflation" or even "deep recession". This is also the core logic behind the continued weakening of US dollar assets in recent times.Index - covering companies that have increased their dividends for 25 years or more, has risen by about 11%, compared to the strong rebound of tech giants, it can be said to be underperforming the market.Energy stocks ranked among the top decliners on the S&P 500 index for the day, with prominent oilfield service providers Halliburton and SLB both falling nearly 1% as oil prices dropped due to market optimism about the future of the US-Iran nuclear agreement. Deere & Co. jumped 3.8% to a record high after exceeding the highest analysts' expectations in its earnings report, despite the announcement of a downgrade in full-year profit guidance due to tariff policies.
The traditionally stable and safe haven sector, the healthcare sector, unexpectedly plunged as UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's stock price plummeted by 11%, dragging down the sector as the stock continued to fluctuate this week amidst a criminal investigation by the US Department of Justice for alleged healthcare insurance fraud. Infection prevention product supplier Steris Plc announced better-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue for its life sciences business, causing its stock price to soar by 8.5% and leading the healthcare sector index.
The retail sector was weak, but Foot Locker's stock price unexpectedly surged, with Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. agreeing to acquire sports shoe retailer Foot Locker for about $2.4 billion, indicating a merger of the two retail companies plagued by the trade war. Foot Locker's stock price surged by 86%, marking its largest single-day gain since at least 1980; meanwhile, Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. saw a 15% drop in its stock price. It was reported that Dick's would acquire Foot Locker for $24 per share, an 86.5% premium over the closing price on the Wednesday before the trading news was announced. Foot Locker shareholders could also choose to receive Dick's stock instead of cash.
President Trump stated that he has asked Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook to stop further manufacturing plants in India to produce consumer electronics for the US market, urging the iPhone maker to increase domestic electronic production capacity in the US rather than adding capacity outside the US while reducing reliance on China. Apple Inc.'s stock price fell by 0.5% upon hearing this news after experiencing several consecutive days of rebound.
At the same time, Cisco Systems, Inc., one of the world's largest computer network and internet equipment manufacturers, provided a strong quarterly performance guidance, with demand for AI network system infrastructure driving its stock price up by nearly 5% on Thursday, leading the Nasdaq 100 index.
Cisco Systems, Inc.'s latest performance outlook indicates that despite large data center operators like Microsoft Corporation cutting or delaying some AI data center construction projects and some companies deferring spending due to macroeconomic and tariff policy uncertainty, investments closely related to AI computing power will continue. This is why suppliers at the core of the AI computing power industry chain, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, NVIDIA, and Foxconn, reiterated strong performance guidance even under the pressure of Trump's global tariff threats, showing that the tariff policy has not led to any cooling of AI computing power demand.
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