GF Securities: The copper balance sheet may shift to a shortage in 2025-2026.

Zhongjin Commodities released a statement saying that Freeport issued an updated announcement on the operation of the Grasberg mine, lowering the production guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 to a "negligible level" and reducing the full-year copper production guidance for 2026 by 35% to 269,500 tons. Zhongjin predicts a loss of 202,000 tons in global copper mine supply in 2025, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap. In 2026, there may be a loss of 269,500 tons, and the annual incremental ore supply will decrease to 330,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.4%. This also means that in 2026, the global copper balance sheet will likely shift from a slight surplus to a shortage.