CITIC Securities: Congo announces cobalt export quota, cobalt prices may rise strongly

According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the Congolese government updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the ban on cobalt exports to October 15, 2025, and limiting cobalt export quotas to only 44% of annual production for 2026-2027. The cobalt export quota system demonstrates the Congolese government's determination to control global cobalt prices. It is expected that the government will stabilize cobalt prices in the long term by flexibly adjusting the supply of cobalt, which is beneficial for the healthy development of the global cobalt industry. CITIC Securities predicts that the Congolese export quota policy will result in global cobalt supply being far below normal levels in 2025-2027, with supply shortages of 122,000/88,000/97,000 tons respectively, leading to a strong increase in cobalt prices. CITIC Securities predicts that companies with a presence in Indonesian cobalt smelting and those owning mines in the Congo will benefit significantly from the rise in cobalt prices.