An overview of the key points of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech.
1. Inflation has recently risen and remains relatively high. The main reason for the increase in inflation this year is the rise in commodity prices, and the overall impact of tariffs on inflation is still to be observed.
2. The labor market faces downside risks. The current situation in the labor market is not solely due to immigration factors, but rather a significant slowdown in demand. The current hiring rate is low, and the dismissal rate is also low. When more vulnerable groups face difficulties in finding jobs, it indicates that the labor market is weakening.
3. It is believed that there is no need to adjust interest rates quickly, as today's 50 basis point rate cut did not receive widespread support.
4. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is working to address the factors behind the revision of employment data. Annual employment data revisions are almost entirely consistent with our expectations, and the data obtained by the Fed from the Bureau of Labor Statistics remains sufficient to meet our job needs. A higher response rate is needed to reduce data volatility.
5. Welcome to the new committee members. The committee, after Milan's addition, remains committed to fulfilling its dual mandate and staunchly upholding the independence of the Federal Reserve.
6. Among the 19 policymakers, 10 have written that they expect to cut interest rates two or more times for the remainder of the year, while the other 10 expect fewer rate cuts.
7. There is currently no new information regarding plans to retain the Federal Reserve. It is not appropriate to comment on the lawsuit involving Cook.
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