Institutional insights ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision: The dot plot is about to be released! Institutions are mostly optimistic about "unchanged" and "dovish turn", almost evenly divided.

This year, the number of interest rate cuts is increasing. 1. J.P. Morgan: The updated dot plot will show room for three interest rate cuts this year, one more than in the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated median in the dot plot may show a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts by 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays Bank: The dot plot will show three interest rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, with the long-term rate forecast remaining unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at the October and December meetings. Dot plot remains unchanged from June 1. Blackrock: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations, with the median in the dot plot likely to remain unchanged, still showing a total of 50 basis points of interest rate cuts this year. 2. UBS Group: The dot plot will show two interest rate cuts this year, while the market expects nearly three cuts. Additionally, participants' forecasts for the economic outlook will also be a focus. 3. Bank of America: Against a backdrop of largely unchanged macro forecasts, the Fed's median interest rate for 2025 is expected to continue to show a 50 basis point cut, despite an overall downward shift in the dot plot distribution. 4. Goldman Sachs: The new dot plot is expected to show two rate cuts this year to 3.875%. Although the Fed may currently plan to cut rates three times this year, it may also believe it is unnecessary to forcefully reflect this in the dot plot. 5. Morgan Stanley: It is expected that the median in this dot plot will still show two interest rate cuts this year, but actual economic data could push the Fed to continue cutting rates for the rest of the year and extend this round of cuts into January of next year. Other points of view 1. Citibank: The updated dot plot is likely to show two to three rate cuts this year, with the possibility of a downward revision in the median rate forecast for 2026.