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Since the beginning of this year, the long-term sovereign bond yields of countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Japan have risen significantly, causing the yield curve to reach one of the steepest levels in years. While this reassessment is often attributed to heavy government borrowing and fiscal deficits, Alex Brazier, Global Head of Investment and Portfolio Solutions at BlackRock, believes that these global trends do not necessarily reflect market concerns about fiscal conditions, but rather market expectations of the neutral interest rate level and the premium required to make investors willing to buy long-term bonds instead of short-term bonds. BlackRock believes that the current higher neutral interest rate level compared to the past is partly due to looser fiscal policies but also includes factors such as high investment spending, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence.
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