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CITIC Securities believes that the operational situation of the overseas lithium resource project in the second quarter of 2025 shows a trend of increased volume and decreased prices. With the domestic lithium carbonate prices bottoming out and rebounding since the third quarter, the enthusiasm for overseas lithium mine production has increased, and the production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year as a whole has increased. The process of overseas supply clearance may be delayed. However, the supply risk of domestic lithium mica has not been eliminated, and combined with stronger-than-expected downstream demand, we believe that the risk of a sharp decline in lithium prices is low. If there are unexpected disturbances in mica production in the future, it may drive supply and demand balance sheet repair and price rebound. It is recommended to focus on low-cost targets that may benefit from the rebound in lithium prices and companies with high-quality mine assets.
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