Long-term interest rates rise instead of decline, how does the decrease in deposit interest rates affect the trend of the bond market?

date
22/05/2025
On May 20th, interest rate cuts for deposits and loans took effect simultaneously. Regarding the downward trend of LPR, there had been sufficient "spoilers" and expectations beforehand, while the decrease in deposit rates slightly exceeded market expectations. However, compared to the relatively supportive stock market, the bond market was once again mocked for "cutting interest rates and causing an increase in effect". In theory, a decrease in deposit rates would drive down interest rates for various types of bonds. However, on the 20th, interest rates for government bonds of various maturities instead showed signs of adjustment. On the 21st, long-term bond rates further increased. Some market participants believe that concerns about banks facing a possible shortage of liabilities due to potential movement of deposits, as well as worries about the situation of interbank CDs attracting funds, have led some institutions to take profits. However, institutions remain optimistic about the bullish trend for bonds. On one hand, the macroeconomic fundamentals still face multiple uncertainties, and expectations for incremental policies remain. On the other hand, the overall liquidity remains loose. Regarding the flow of bank deposits to non-banks, some bond market researchers have stated that the increase in the size of wealth management products and money market funds also implies an increase in demand for bond market allocation, although there may be changes in structural preferences.