Review of US-Iran nuclear negotiations - Has Trump's "maximum pressure" finally broken Iran's back?

1. Current Situation of Iran's Nuclear Program 1. In 2018, the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and Iran began to gradually increase its enrichment levels and stockpile levels. 2. By the end of 2024, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran had increased the enrichment level of uranium to 60%, reaching weapons-grade levels, just slightly below nuclear weapon grade. 2. Indirect Negotiations between the US and Iran 1. Iran's nuclear enrichment program - The US demands that Iran must completely destroy all centrifuges and rely entirely on imported enriched uranium for its future civil nuclear needs. - Iran, on the other hand, stated that they will not accept the destruction of all its nuclear facilities and will firmly defend their right to peaceful nuclear activities. - The dismantling plan of Iran's civil nuclear facilities faces challenges: The director of arms control policy at the Arms Control Association in the US stated that dismantling infrastructure does not erase the uranium enrichment knowledge Iran has already acquired. If necessary, Iran can quickly rebuild its nuclear program. The irreversibility of this cognition emphasizes the need for monitoring to be a key focus of any effective agreement. 2. Existing stockpile of enriched uranium - The US proposal requires Iran to destroy or transfer its nuclear material stockpile to a third country. - Reports suggest that Iran has opposed the US proposal and is more willing to keep its uranium reserves under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure that the US does not withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement again. 3. Sanctions and Maximum Pressure 1. US President Trump stated that if negotiations fail, the US is willing to take military and economic actions. 2. The White House National Security Advisor pointed out that "each technical stalemate will be accompanied by a new round of sanctions." According to statistics, between April and May, the US imposed 8 sanctions on Iran. Since the end of the fourth round of negotiations on May 11, the US has imposed three rounds of sanctions on Iran. 4. Prospects for Negotiations Negotiations are likely to be successful: Iran has promised to "disarm itself" in exchange for lifting sanctions. Iran's top leader's closest advisor stated on the 14th that Iran would commit to destroying its highly enriched uranium stockpile, agree to only enrich uranium to a lower level required for civilian use, and allow international inspectors to oversee the process in exchange for the immediate lifting of all US economic sanctions on Iran. 5. Internal and External Challenges 1. Iran's economy has been severely impacted by international sanctions, with the rial violently falling below the 1 million mark in early April. 2. During the third round of nuclear negotiations, a major explosion occurred at Iran's largest commercial port, possibly involving solid fuel ballistic missiles. 3. There is serious disagreement between hardliners and negotiators domestically, and the explosion at the key port further complicates the situation. 4. Long-term sanctions, power shortages, and soaring inflation have led to near paralysis of the domestic economy, with increasing discontent among the people. 5. Allies have suffered significant setbacks, with Hamas being dealt a devastating blow, Hezbollah in Lebanon suffering heavy losses, and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.