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On May 15th, the latest research report from CITIC Securities pointed out that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has experienced significant volatility recently due to tariff impacts, with related companies showing differentiation in their performance outlook for the first quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2025. Companies in the consumer electronics and semiconductor equipment sectors have been affected by tariffs, while sectors such as semiconductor software, AI chips, and networking equipment have been relatively less impacted by tariffs. Currently, the trade negotiations between countries are still ongoing and the tariff issues related to the Trump administration have not been resolved. CITIC Securities believes that key factors to focus on in the future for the US semiconductor and hardware sectors include tariffs and trade policies, macroeconomic and inflation data, and the development of generative AI technology. Considering that post-earnings forecasts for companies have been revised down to a certain extent, the valuations of most companies are currently at reasonable levels. It is recommended to track two main trends in the semiconductor sector in the next 6-12 months: 1) Focus on companies with cheap valuations that are expected to recover their earnings forecasts if there is a reversal in tariff policies. 2) In the short to medium term, focus on defensive investment targets in the AI and semiconductor software sectors that are relatively less affected by tariff policies.
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