Goldman Sachs predicts that the People's Bank of China will cut interest rates and reserve requirements again in the fourth quarter.

On May 13th, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for China's export growth in the latest research report, predicting that the actual export growth rate in 2025 will be basically the same as in 2024, compared to the previous forecast of a 5% decline year on year; The ratio of current account surplus to GDP was also raised from 1.7% to 2.3%. In terms of monetary policy, Goldman Sachs also released another research report on the same day, believing that following the recent "double cut" by the Chinese central bank, there will be another "double cut" in the fourth quarter, with an additional two 10 basis point interest rate cuts in 2026. Combining assumptions about China's export growth in 2025 and monetary policy, Goldman Sachs also raised the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for the second quarter and the second half of this year, and raised the full-year actual GDP growth rate for 2025.