Renminbi exchange rate recovers the 7.20 mark, institutions believe that the period of greatest depreciation pressure may have passed.

date
13/05/2025
What is the future trend of RMB exchange rate? Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Orient Securities, believes that in the future, the trend of RMB will mainly depend on two factors: the progress of China-US economic and trade negotiations and the trend of the US dollar. Considering that China and the US will experience a complex negotiation process to address each other's core concerns in the future, the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate accordingly, with little possibility of unilateral appreciation. However, as the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on the US economy gradually becomes apparent, the US dollar will also come under certain pressure, and the US stance on tariffs against China may become more flexible and pragmatic, meaning that the phase of greatest depreciation pressure on the RMB may have passed. In the future, the RMB is more likely to undergo a two-way fluctuation process opposite to the trend of the US dollar, but the amplitude will be relatively small; compared to other major currencies, the trend of the RMB will be more stable.