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Domestic refineries, after experiencing a decline in oil prices in March and April, have seen their profits continue to recover to varying degrees and in different forms. The inventory of priced raw materials has also seen a certain rebound from previous lows, with expectations of a slight increase in plant operations. Looking at the recent geopolitical risks in the crude oil procurement channels, it is clear that they have brought negative impacts, which may weaken industry profits in the medium to long term.
In terms of the industry chain and varieties, refineries in Shandong, Northeast China, and East China have stable short-term operations, but weak demand for finished oil products and raw material disturbances are suppressing the capacity utilization rate in the medium to long term. In contrast, refineries in North China are more cautious due to factors such as raw material consumption taxes and geopolitics.
In the field of chemical light oil processing, the valuation of aromatics has returned to fundamentals, narrowing the arbitrage window between domestic and international markets. In terms of olefins, under fluctuating tariff policies, cautious procurement of ethane and a possible shift towards Middle Eastern sources are seen, with policy integration and quota distribution remaining key areas of focus for the future.
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