Guotai Junan Futures and Chemical Industry Joint Research

Golden Ten Futures special guest Guotai Junan Futures Analysis: Domestic refineries have continued to recover profits after the oil price decline in March-April, with varying degrees and forms of pricing and stocking, and raw material inventories have rebounded from previous lows to some extent. The expectation of plant resumption has been slightly enhanced. From the perspective of crude oil procurement channels, the adverse effects of recent geopolitical risks are evident, which may weaken industry profits in the medium to long term. In terms of industry chain and varieties, short-term startup stability in refineries in Shandong, Northeast, and East China is seen, but weak demand for refined oil and raw material disruptions suppress medium to long-term capacity utilization. The situation in North China is different, with a relatively cautious approach due to factors such as raw material consumption tax and geopolitics. In the chemical light oil processing sector, aromatics valuation is returning to fundamentals, narrowing the arbitrage window between domestic and foreign markets; in terms of olefins, under tariff policy fluctuations, cautious procurement of ethane is observed, and propane may shift towards Middle Eastern sources, with policy integration and quota allocation remaining key focus areas for the future.