Will the renminbi be joining the Asian appreciation trend after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or after July?

date
09/05/2025
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the May meeting. Despite constant pressure from President Trump, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell chose to "stand firm", clearly stating that there will be no preemptive rate cuts. Now, Wall Street's predictions for a rate cut have been pushed back to July. As a result, the US dollar index briefly rose above 100. However, the US dollar index is still down more than 7% this year, as faith in US dollar assets has been damaged. Recently, there has been a trend of Asian currencies appreciating, with the New Taiwan dollar, Hong Kong dollar, and others surging against the US dollar. The offshore yuan also briefly broke above the key 200-day moving average this week, but multiple foreign bank traders told reporters that the amplitude of the counter-cyclical factor has significantly narrowed to -200 points. This indicates that the People's Bank of China seems to have no intention of significantly appreciating the yuan amidst easing depreciation pressures. However, as foreign funds and speculative traders bet on the yuan rising, export companies may start considering whether to convert a large amount of US dollar deposits into yuan, which could potentially lead to subsequent changes in exchange rates.