CITIC Securities: Still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates no more than or equal to twice this year.

CITIC Securities research report stated that the Federal Reserve will maintain the policy interest rate unchanged at the May 2025 FOMC meeting, and the meeting statement emphasized that "uncertainty has further intensified." Powell's speech revolved around the words "uncertainty" and "wait and see," seemingly without much additional information. However, based on our analytical framework of "transitory inflation + weaker growth + high uncertainty," the current US economic data and inflation expectations have led to a reduction in rate cut expectations. We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates less than or equal to 2 times this year, and we expect the policy interest rate to remain unchanged at the June FOMC meeting. In terms of the market, the subdued meeting did not cause much volatility. We expect the market to continue to focus on Trump's trade policy in the short term, with bearish sentiment on the US dollar in the foreign exchange market and unclear prospects for US stocks, leading to high volatility in the short term.