The United States had already lowered its forecast for crude oil production before the latest round of plummeting oil prices.

Before the latest round of price declines caused oil prices to fall below $60 per barrel, prompting shale oil producers to begin implementing contraction plans, the United States had already lowered its forecast for domestic crude oil production for this year. The Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday shows that by 2025, U.S. crude oil daily production is expected to be 13.42 million barrels, a decrease of about 100,000 barrels from the previous month's forecast. This forecast does not take into account the latest U.S. tariff levels or the production increase agreed upon by OPEC and its allies over the weekend. With the escalation of the trade war initiated by U.S. President Trump, as well as the sharp drop in oil prices due to OPEC+ production increases, expectations for U.S. crude oil production may be further lowered. Several major U.S. shale oil producers are planning to reduce the number of drilling rigs, with Diamondback Energy Inc. stating this week that U.S. shale oil production may have already peaked. The EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil daily production will be 13.49 million barrels next year, a decrease of 70,000 barrels from previous forecasts. The EIA indicates that global daily crude oil demand for this year is expected to increase to 103.7 million barrels, an increase of 100,000 barrels from previous forecasts.