Lates News

CICC research report states that US October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis (0.6% last month), while core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month (0.3% last month), both above market expectations. Overall, inflation stickiness remains strong, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month for the third consecutive month, supporting the Fed's continued rate hikes. Recently, Fed Governor Waller suggested that a 50 basis point hike in December is not ruled out. However, we believe the Fed's policy is not significantly "behind the curve," and given that financial conditions have already tightened marginally, the need for accelerated hikes is not strong. We maintain our baseline forecast of a 25 basis point hike in December, and the current tightening pace remains gradual and moderate.