JPMorgan raises its Brent spot crude oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.

JPMorgan said in a research note that it raised its Brent spot crude oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 by $5 per barrel. The current fourth-quarter forecast is $105 per barrel; the first-quarter forecast for next year is $100 per barrel. Analysts including Martijn Rats said that although Middle East export volumes have risen, overall market supply, including supply to domestic refineries, remains far below last year's levels. In addition, onshore crude oil inventories continue to decline and are at multi-year lows. Tanker attacks have increased again, at about 11 per week over the past two weeks, compared with fewer than 4 per week in July and August. "Attacks targeting Saudi infrastructure have increased. Crude oil exports are still continuing, but related uncertainty remains high." Higher freight rates are also supporting Brent oil prices. "Compared with long-distance crude that still needs to be used to meet demand, Brent crude shipped to Northwest Europe has a cost advantage of $10 to $15 per barrel."