CITIC Construction Investment: The stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz continues, and the geopolitical risk premium remains high.

The CITIC Securities research report indicates that the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be fundamentally resolved in the short term. The U.S. "military quick victory" plan has already failed, and its policy towards Iran is shifting from high-intensity military strikes to a tug-of-war strategy of "pressuring while negotiating." Iran is not likely to easily give up its important tool against the U.S. in the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, continued disruption in the strait is beneficial for oil and gas extraction and the energy sector, while being detrimental to energy-consuming companies in aviation and shipping; the medium-term trend will depend on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the actual restoration of navigation in the strait, with geopolitical uncertainty still dominating oil price fluctuations.