CITIC Construction: Lithium carbonate production capacity is gradually being released, and there will still be no surplus throughout 2027.

CITIC Construction Investment released a research report stating that with the arrival of the demand peak in the second half of 2026, the supply gap for lithium carbonate is expected to gradually widen, reaching its peak in Q4. If the industry chain prepares stock in advance, the price high for the year might occur between late Q3 and early Q4. Demand is expected to remain strong in 2027, with a gradual release of lithium carbonate supply, but it is still unlikely to be in surplus for the entire year. Considering the impact of three key sectors: energy storage, electric vehicles, and sodium batteries, the bank estimates that the price range for the second half of 2026 will be between 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton. Looking ahead to 2027, the bank predicts a supply-demand gap of 15,000 to 99,000 tons for lithium carbonate, indicating a slightly looser supply-demand situation compared to this year, but still in a state of supply shortage. Based on a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 10 to 15 for 2027, the implied lithium carbonate price included in the market value of mainstream lithium mining companies for next year would be 110,000 to 140,000 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to companies with significant performance elasticity in lithium products, higher growth rates in lithium mining output, and a larger proportion of domestic mines.