China International Capital Corporation: The four rounds of adjustments in the tech bubble are remarkably similar. As long as the industry trends remain unchanged, the market digesting high valuations and high congestion is not a bad thing.

date
02/08/2026
Starting from mid to late June, a notable correction has occurred in the global AI sector, with South Korea experiencing the most severe impact due to its "high leverage, high crowding, and high retail participation." This situation is fueled by the amplification effects of high crowding and high leverage, macroeconomic disturbances, and renewed concerns over potential bubble formations as the AI market reaches this point. In fact, before the dot-com bubble burst in March 2000, there had already been at least four significant and prolonged rounds of corrections in the tech sector. The triggers for the decline are highly reminiscent of the current adjustments: short-term fluctuations in industry trends, "headwinds" from the macro environment, and overheated valuation sentiments. Ultimately, the rebound of tech stocks arises from the alleviation of these three pressures. Therefore, for the current market to stabilize or even embark on a new rising trend, a similar combination is necessary. As long as the industry trends remain unchanged, digesting high valuations and high crowding is not a bad thing; in fact, a correction may increase the odds for future gains. The alleviation of tightening pressure from the Federal Reserve or a clear resolution could also help improve the market environment. However, the most crucial factor is still industrial catalysts; otherwise, the market may stabilize but struggle to initiate another significant rally. Before that happens, it is advisable to focus on short-term certainties and "bottleneck assets," such as the energy shortage in the U.S. and the semiconductor shortage in China. If there are concerns that hardware catalysts may be realized too slowly or to a limited extent, one could consider a gradual shift towards areas with less fundamental resistance, such as the internet and innovative pharmaceuticals, while cyclical and externally reliant sectors wait for a decline in U.S. Treasury yields.
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According to CICC Research, since mid to late June, there has been a significant global pullback in the AI sector, especially in South Korea, which has been the most severe due to "high leverage, high crowding, and high retail participation." This is driven not only by the magnifying effect of high crowding and leverage but also by macroeconomic disturbances (such as rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and renewed blockades in the Strait of Hormuz pushing up oil prices) and concerns about a potential bubble reignited by the current AI advancements (such as the decline in token spending on computational resources from Meta). In fact, prior to the final collapse of the tech bubble in March 2000, there were at least four substantial and prolonged pullbacks in the tech stocks. The factors triggering the decline are highly similar to those in the current adjustment: short-term fluctuations in industry trends; "headwinds" in the macro environment; and overheated valuation sentiment. Ultimately, the ability of tech stocks to rebound again was due to the alleviation of pressures from these three aspects. Therefore, for the current market to stabilize or even initiate a new upward trend, it requires the coordination of these three elements: digestion of high crowding and high leverage (to a large extent), alleviation of Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations or a definitive outcome (monitoring the July FOMC), and, crucially, new catalysts from earnings reports and industry developments (the July-August earnings season).
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