CICC: Rocket Cost Reduction Initiates a New Commercial Aerospace Cycle, Flexibility Leads the New Trend of Solar Wing Technology.

CITIC Securities research report pointed out that low-orbit resources are scarce and the first come, first served, and the global satellite network competition is heating up. SpaceX plans to launch over a million satellites, while China's Xingwang/Qianfan/Hongqing consortium plans to launch nearly 40,000 satellites. With time constraints from the ITU, all parties are accelerating their efforts to seize frequency orbit resources. Reusable rockets are the core catalyst for speeding up the industry: multiple domestic rockets are intensively pursuing reuse experiments, and the launch cost of SpaceX's V3 Starship is expected to decrease significantly. Solar panels are the most inflation-prone part of the industry chain, with single-star power upgrades driving area growth. Gallium arsenide is currently the mainstream solution, but due to the relative scarcity and export restrictions of gallium and germanium, the tight supply-demand relationship will drive prices higher. To supplement this, P-type HJT crystal silicon/perovskite route will be used, and currently, North American Space X has shown economic feasibility with the crystal silicon solution, as silicon materials are abundant and not subject to patent restrictions, making it more suitable for large-scale overseas production.