Lates News

The China Galaxy Macro Research Report believes that the strength of non-farm employment does not necessarily mean the Fed will raise interest rates this year. Overall, the May labor market data shows that the employment situation is still better than market expectations, and the Fed lacks short-term reasons and data to support a rate cut. However, the structure still shows that there is no obvious risk of acceleration in the labor market and inflation will not spiral up, so there is no need to excessively price in the risk of a rate hike this year. Although non-farm data has been relatively strong since March, in the short term, it only raises the threshold for a rate cut by the Fed this year and will not lead to pressure for a rate hike. Overall, the market's concerns about a rate hike have become the main theme of trading. Although China Galaxy Macro tends to believe that the market has overpriced the risk of a rate hike, short-term lagging economic data cannot disprove the expectation of a rate hike, and the Fed can only maintain a "data-dependent" stance. Currently, after the market's extreme pricing in of AI, there will be a period of time facing the risk of a pullback, and liquidity expectations will recover within the year, but patience is needed. (e company).