Tonight's non-farm payroll report has created a life and death situation for the US bond market: the crowded interest rate hike trading, and the short squeeze situation is imminent.

Finance and Economics App learned that the U.S. Treasury market is facing the most crucial macro data test since 2026. With Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh set to preside over his first interest rate meeting on June 16-17, the market has shifted from widespread expectations of rate cuts at the beginning of the year to betting on rate hikes in the coming year. However, on the eve of the May non-farm payroll report on Friday, this highly consensus market expectation is facing challenges. If job growth significantly slows down, U.S. bond yields may plummet rapidly, and traders who have been betting on interest rate hikes for the past few months may face the most painful short-selling market since the beginning of the year.