Middle East war ignited sulfur: soared 80% within the year, inventory is in urgent need, when will the rise peak?

Affected by the situation in the Middle East, the price of sulfur has surged by 80% so far this year, a nearly 200% increase compared to the same period last year. According to data from Longzhong Information, as of May 18, the mainstream reference price for granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 7,460 yuan/ton, a 195% increase year-on-year and an 82% increase year-to-date. Compared to the price of less than 1,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2024, the cumulative increase has exceeded 600%. The total inventory at major ports across the country is only 1.08 million tons, a nearly 50% decrease from the same period last year. The direct trigger for the current sharp rise in sulfur prices was the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East that erupted at the end of February. Mano, a senior analyst at Longzhong Information, stated that the Middle East accounts for 41% of global sulfur production and 50% of trade volume, and the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz has directly reduced the supply of sulfur. Looking ahead, the short-term price of sulfur is likely to remain at a high level, but there is limited upside potential. According to Jinlianchuang's judgment, it will take several weeks or even months for the Strait of Hormuz to resume navigation, and the global supply gap is difficult to fill quickly. At the same time, domestic demand has passed the peak period of spring farming, and under export restrictions, phosphate fertilizer companies will further reduce their loads, leading to a significant decrease in sulfur consumption. It is expected that the Chinese sulfur market will enter a high-level stalemate phase by the end of the second quarter, with onshore prices fluctuating in the range of $800/ton to $900/ton, and a low probability of a significant decline.