UBS Securities' Song Yu: First quarter GDP growth exceeds expectations.
In the first quarter, the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth rate increased from 4.9% in the fourth quarter of last year to 5.3%, pushing the year-on-year growth rate to 5%. Song Yu, Chief China Economist at UBS Securities, believes that based on the first quarter data, policymakers may have more confidence in achieving this year's economic growth target, and the urgency of adding policy support in the short term has eased. He also pointed out that the steady GDP growth was supported by strong export performance, improved retail sales growth, and a turnaround in fixed asset investment from a sharp year-on-year decline in the fourth quarter of 2025 to a 1.7% year-on-year increase. At the same time, the previous forecast of 4.5% GDP growth for the whole year is facing significant upward risks and is currently being reassessed.
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