Analysis: Don't just focus on crude oil, the real danger of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the issue of shipping fuel.

date
16/03/2026
The secondary impacts of the substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz are worth investors' attention, as refined oil prices are rising faster than crude oil, which could further impact the global economy. The characteristics of Middle Eastern oil products mean that supply disruptions are driving fuels on which the global transportation system relies to rise at a faster pace. As Javier Blas emphasizes, fuel oil as a source of power for ships is the most urgent issue. The near-paralysis of this waterway represents a "double blow" to such products. This is because not only are Persian Gulf refineries a major direct source of fuel oil, but crude oil in this region can produce more fuel oil compared to other varieties. Therefore, fuel oil prices are rising at a faster pace than crude oil, and there are even some unprecedented price quotes, leading to concerns that supply may soon be depleted. In the meantime, aviation kerosene and diesel are also "outperforming" crude oil futures. Given that these prices will impact businesses and households, focusing only on the WTI and Brent markets may underestimate the potential impact on inflation pressures and long-term growth prospects.