Hormuz Strait is closed to navigation, researcher: shipping rates may further increase

According to the Shanghai Securities News, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on the evening of February 28th that they would prohibit any ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Real-time data from the International Oil Tanker Traffic Monitoring System shows that the speed of oil tankers in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz has generally dropped to zero, with a large number of ships anchoring to seek refuge. Several shipping researchers have expressed that the current situation in the Middle East is deteriorating rapidly, which will further drive up shipping prices, with oil shipping prices being of particular concern. A domestic professional in the oil shipping industry stated that the typical characteristics of the oil transportation industry are highly concentrated customers and non-standardized products, directly leading to the fact that individual ship owners often have to accept market rates rather than setting them. Supply and demand differences determine the direction, while production capacity utilization determines price elasticity. In addition to the Middle East situation, the United States' recent actions against Venezuela and taking control of its crude oil trade have accelerated the phasing out of "shadow fleets" and significantly increased VLCC freight rates to some extent. A senior shipping researcher mentioned that seasonality, VLCC delivery schedules, and the number of tanker turnovers are core factors, and the second quarter may be a crucial window to observe how the "stop sailing support prices" strategy may change.