CITIC Securities: Resilience of Foreign Trade Export Growth Further Strengthened

CITIC Securities research report stated that in December, China's export growth exceeded expectations and previous values, mainly driven by the strong resilience of non-US exports. The semiconductor industry chain and automotive industry chain played a major role in export growth, while labor-intensive products slightly increased the drag on overall exports. In terms of imports, the import growth in December exceeded expectations and previous values, possibly related to the recovery of the manufacturing sector in December. Among bulk commodities, the growth in the import quantity of natural gas, crude oil, and coal increased compared to the previous period, while the growth in the import quantity of iron ore and copper ore decreased. With the resilience of non-US exports combined with the moderate recovery of the US economy, we believe that the export fundamentals in 2026 will also have strong support, but attention should be paid to the possibility of some countries adjusting their trade policies towards China under the influence of the US. In terms of export pace, we predict that the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery products on January 9th may provide some support to the export growth in the first quarter of 2026 for related goods.