CITIC Securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by around 50 basis points in 2026.

The research report from CITIC Securities pointed out that in December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the United States increased by 50,000, which was lower than the expected 65,000. The structure of non-farm employment growth in December was still poor, with employment concentrated in the medical, education, and leisure hotel industries. The employment growth disclosed in early January by ADP was also below expectations, with employment growth remaining weak and employment growth in large enterprises slowing significantly. Overall, the December employment market data in the United States shows that employment in the United States is still weak, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by around 50bps in 2026.