CITIC Securities: Export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be canceled, the industry is expected to enter a high-quality development stage.

CITIC Securities pointed out that the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation recently decided to cancel the export tax rebate for value-added tax on products such as photovoltaics starting from April 1, 2026. In the short term, it is expected that photovoltaic and energy storage companies will face pressure from increased export costs and decreased profitability. It is predicted that the volume of photovoltaic components shipped during the window period will rapidly increase, and SMM calculates that the volume of photovoltaic components exported may decline by 5%-10% after the export tax rebate takes effect. It is expected that leading energy storage companies will smoothly pass on overseas price increases, with policy improvements optimizing supply for overseas energy storage and a positive outlook for high overseas energy storage prosperity. In the long term, CITIC Securities believes that the "cutthroat competition" caused by low prices in the past in the photovoltaic industry is expected to ease, with technological innovation and brand building becoming the main direction. The pace of eliminating backward production capacity will accelerate, leading companies will continue to increase their market share, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a new stage of high-quality development. Investment opportunities in photovoltaics and energy storage are recommended.