Fed megaphone: Powell is not the biggest obstacle to rate cuts, the Fed's internal consensus mechanism is on the verge of collapse.

"The Fed Whisperer" In an article by Nick Timiraos, it was stated that Trump expressed this week his expectation that interest rates will significantly decrease after he appoints a new chairman of the Federal Reserve in May next year. However, there is growing internal opposition within the Fed against a rate cut in December, which means his wish may be difficult to achieve. Whether Powell decides to hold rates steady or cut them in December, he faces the most serious internal resistance in his almost eight-year term. This division may continue into next year, meaning that even with a new chairman, it does not guarantee more rate cuts. Some are concerned that if Trump cannot get his way, he may take more aggressive measures to weaken the central bank's independence in exchange for a rate cut. For over 30 years, Fed chairmen have always sought to reach as broad a consensus as possible on rate decisions, with no decisions made by a slim majority. But the December meeting is likely to see three or even more dissenting votes. Evercore ISI economist Krishna Guha said, "We are witnessing a breakdown in the decision-making process and next year we may see a deeply divided committee. It feels like a dress rehearsal for 2026." This suggests an unprecedented prospect: monetary policy outcomes may be decided by an extremely rare slim majority, and the newly appointed chairman by Trump may not always be in control of the situation.