Huatai Securities: Electricity consumption growth rate in October may exceed 10%, optimistic about fourth quarter thermal coal prices.

According to the research report of Huatai Securities, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the electricity generated by large-scale industries in October was 800.2 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points from September; among them, thermal power increased by 7.3% year-on-year, an increase of 12.7 percentage points from September; hydropower increased by 28.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from September. It is predicted that the growth rate of total electricity consumption in October may reach 10.2%, although October is traditionally a low season for electricity consumption, the fact that electricity generation in October is not low season may be a reflection of the high year-on-year growth in electricity consumption demand in the fourth quarter of this year. Another highlight is the 12.7 percentage point expansion of the year-on-year growth rate of thermal power generation, considering that the decrease in the growth rate of hydropower due to weakening water inflow, the weakening effect of hydropower on thermal power generation is reduced, coupled with the low base in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is optimistic about the support of thermal coal prices in the fourth quarter by strong demand for thermal power + low inventory + supply pressure.