CITIC Securities: Aluminum supply increases shift overseas without changing tight supply-demand balance pattern.

CICC research report states that in the next three years, the global supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum will be basically balanced. However, this balance is based on China's electrolytic aluminum overproduction and overseas electrolytic aluminum new capacity being released on schedule. If there is a slight supply problem, there will be a supply shortage. When the transmission chain of high prices-high profits-new supply is constrained by supply, the price has the basis of being easier to rise than fall. At the same time, the competition of AI investment in Europe and America is facing a shortage of power batteries, posing a threat of squeezing out the stock supply of over 4 million tons in Europe and America. Once triggered, the aluminum price may accelerate upward.