The photovoltaic installation expectation for the fourth quarter is expected to be weak, and there are signs of loosening in the industry chain prices.

Data released by the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association showed that this week, the average transaction prices of polycrystalline silicon N-type recycled materials and N-type granular silicon remained flat compared to the previous week. The Silicon Industry Branch pointed out that on the demand side, the market has a weak expectation for photovoltaic installations in the fourth quarter, with limited increments in battery component orders. The operating rate of silicon wafer companies remains stable, and there is a weaker willingness to stock up on silicon materials. On the supply side, although the average monthly production of polycrystalline silicon in the fourth quarter has increased by 8.3% to around 130,000 tons, most companies are already near full capacity for orders this month, with very little excess supply. Therefore, in a weak supply and demand situation, overall market trading is light. According to production plans, some major factories in the Southwest region plan to significantly reduce production in November and December, while capacities in Inner Mongolia will undergo maintenance simultaneously. It is expected that the monthly production of domestic polycrystalline silicon will fall to 125,000 to 130,000 tons. Downstream operating rates remain relatively stable, and the accumulation rate of polycrystalline silicon inventory in November and December is expected to slow down, but industry inventories are still likely to exceed 400,000 tons by the end of 2025. The Silicon Industry Branch believes that the current oversupply situation in the polycrystalline silicon market has not fundamentally improved, and in the short term, it may continue to operate weakly and steadily under policy expectations.